11-30-2018, 08:14 PM
(11-30-2018, 03:35 PM)CTcard Wrote:(11-28-2018, 07:29 PM)2006alum Wrote: I can't really see an argument for why the Pac-12 isn't the fifth best conference. Every other P5 had more top 25 teams except the ACC, which had higher ranked teams, and we were the only conference not to have a team in the CFP (Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State, Oklahoma).
Well, one argument is that counting teams in the top 25 is at best a limited measure of conference quality.
For example, that year (2015-16) Sagarin had the Pac 12 as the second best conference in the country (SEC West was best of Power 5 divisions, SEC East the worst of the Power 5 divisions, but their average beats the Pac divisions at #2 and #4 or #2 and #3 depending upon which measure you take).
I don't particularly trust Sagarin, I just used it because its convenient and points out that rating the conferences depends strongly on exactly what you are rating.
For me, the take aways are:- the differences among the Power 5 are very small compared to the differences between the Power 5 and the rest.
- the differences generally are smaller than most all fans think.
- year to year, who's where jumbles around a lot.
- one constant is the ACC is usually towards the bottom on measures that consider the whole conference. [Though Sagarin had them #1 in 2016.]
Here's one way to look at it. What would our record be if we played in other conferences.
Pac-12 North (our actual conference): 3-2, pending one game where we are favored
Pac-12 South: 3-1 actual; there is a good chance we would have gone 2-0 against Arizona and Colorado
ACC-Atlantic: likely loss to Clemson, favored against everyone else on a neutral site, but likely to wind up 5-2 (with tough games against NC State, Syracuse and BC); also, we have an actual loss to ACC honorary member Notre Dame
ACC-Coastal: Would be favored in a neutral site against all of them, but likely to wind up 6-1 (with tough games against Miami and maybe Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh)
BigTen East: Likely to end up 4-3, with losses against tOSU, Penn State, and Michigan. Might also have a tough game against Michigan State.
BigTen West: Favored against everyone but Iowa on a neutral site, but would face tough games against Wisonsin, Purdue, and Northwestern
Big12: Likely 7-3 with losses to Oklahoma, Texas, and West Virginia, and a tough match-up with Oklahoma State. Lots of shoot outs.
SEC-East: Likely to end up 5-2, with losses to Georgia and one of Florida or Missouri, and tough match-ups with Kentucky and South Carolina
SEC-West: Likely to wind up 3-4, with losses against Alabama, Mississippi State, and LSU and probably one of Texas A&M and Auburn
By this metric, the SEC-West would be the hardest league for us to compete in, by far, and the ACC-Coastal, Big Ten West and Pac-12 South, and ACC-Atlantic aside from Clemson the easiest. That also corresponds to how Sagarin ranks the conferences.
BC
