[2006alum]

No denying this weekend was a disappointing one - women's soccer, women's basketball, and men's water polo all got into brobdingnagian holes early and couldn't climb out. And yes, we had several no. 1 seeds who didn't deliver.

However, I will say my general sense is that we tend to win more championships when we're NOT the number one seed than when we are (think of all of our women's tennis team's championships as a double-digit seed). This, of course, is because "the field" combined almost always has a better chance of winning than the no. 1 seed, but it's also a good reminder that being seeded no. 1 may only signal somewhere between a 10% and 40% chance of winning depending on the sport (more for smaller fields like water polo, less for big fields with lots of variability, like golf and tennis).

All of which is to say, yes, being seeded no. 1 means we should have the best chance of winning, but that chance may actually be pretty small, and the difference in odds between, say, no. 1 and no. 4 could be very, very small depending on the sport. And I think there's something psychologically impairing about being the no. 1 seed - nothing to gain, and everything to lose. 

Now, having given the woofing gods many mathematical sacrifices, let's hope that clears the way for our women's volleyball team to win as the no. 1 seed!

[2006alum]

No denying this weekend was a disappointing one - women's soccer, women's basketball, and men's water polo all got into brobdingnagian holes early and couldn't climb out. And yes, we had several no. 1 seeds who didn't deliver.

However, I will say my general sense is that we tend to win more championships when we're NOT the number one seed than when we are (think of all of our women's tennis team's championships as a double-digit seed). This, of course, is because "the field" combined almost always has a better chance of winning than the no. 1 seed, but it's also a good reminder that being seeded no. 1 may only signal somewhere between a 10% and 40% chance of winning depending on the sport (more for smaller fields like water polo, less for big fields with lots of variability, like golf and tennis).

All of which is to say, yes, being seeded no. 1 means we should have the best chance of winning, but that chance may actually be pretty small, and the difference in odds between, say, no. 1 and no. 4 could be very, very small depending on the sport. And I think there's something psychologically impairing about being the no. 1 seed - nothing to gain, and everything to lose. 

Now, having given the woofing gods many mathematical sacrifices, let's hope that clears the way for our women's volleyball team to win as the no. 1 seed!