[BostonCard]

I'm not so sure about KJ.  QB Rating-wise, he's regressed from last year to this.  He's thrown 11 interceptions, tied for the most in the NCAA's top 38 quarterbacks.  He was better at rushing, scoring and scrambling last year, and has proven to be a slow scrambler.  Here's from the Draft Network:

I don't disagree with you about his eval, but I don't think he's regressed vis a vis last year.  By raw numbers, his ratings went up from 139.5 last year to 155 this year.  That has mostly come because his completion percentage has improved from 59% to 65%, and his yards per attempt have gone up from a pretty good 7.5 to a very good 8.6.  His touchdown percentage has also improved slightly from 6.6% to 7%, a sign of the greater reliance we've had on him.

His interception rate did double (from 1.3% to 2.6%), and I think that's a legitimate knock on him, but he's also had a lot of third and longs to convert because of our offensive issues.  Five of his 11 interceptions have come on third and 10+ (on 33 attempts, a 15% INT rate), and another two on third and 7-9 (on 21 attempts, a 10% INT rate).  So that is something to work on, but those are less damaging interceptions than on first down or second or third and short.  Also, eight of his 11 interceptions have happened when losing, which is what you want; when the team is down, you want a "gunslinger" who will take some risks to try to bring the team back (as he did against Oregon).  Only two of his interceptions were when the team was tied, and none were when we were leading by fewer than 14 points (he had one with a lead of over 14).  By and large, this is the pattern you want in a QB; careful with the ball when we have a small lead and at favorable down/distances but willing to take a chance on third and long and when we are trailing.

He was definitely less of a threat with his legs this year; last year he had 92 yards of positive yardage; this year he had negative yardage for the year.  Part of that is we've given up sacks.  But certainly early in the year, he rarely scrambled for positive yards, and on read options, he almost never kept, allowing defensive ends to key in on the back.  I think that is the after effects of his injury and surgery, and I think his mobility did improve in the later part of the season.

From my perspective, there are a couple things he can work on.  His mobility has already been discussed, and if it really was an after effect of his injury and surgery, then I expect him to be better next year.  The second thing will be hitting more of his receivers in stride now that JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Kaden Smith, and Trent Irwin will be gone.  A lot of the throws to those guys were meant to hit them in one on one coverage where the receiver could make a play on the ball and out-muscle the defender.  With the receivers he will have next year, he'll have more of an opportunity to throw to a receiver who has gotten a step on their DB, and will be hopefully be able to make yards after the catch if the ball is thrown well.  And as other have noted, he can also improve on quick throws.

But overall, I disagree with the assessment that he regressed this year.  He ended the season as the top Pac-12 QB in PER and yards per attempt (the latter tied with Browning, a senior), second in completion percentage, yards per game and touchdowns (Minshew was tops in all of those categories, because he had about 50% more attempts than Costello).  Shockingly, Costello was second in the Pac-12 in attempts, so to be able to have a high PER despite the high usage rate says something.

BC

[BostonCard]

I'm not so sure about KJ.  QB Rating-wise, he's regressed from last year to this.  He's thrown 11 interceptions, tied for the most in the NCAA's top 38 quarterbacks.  He was better at rushing, scoring and scrambling last year, and has proven to be a slow scrambler.  Here's from the Draft Network:

I don't disagree with you about his eval, but I don't think he's regressed vis a vis last year.  By raw numbers, his ratings went up from 139.5 last year to 155 this year.  That has mostly come because his completion percentage has improved from 59% to 65%, and his yards per attempt have gone up from a pretty good 7.5 to a very good 8.6.  His touchdown percentage has also improved slightly from 6.6% to 7%, a sign of the greater reliance we've had on him.

His interception rate did double (from 1.3% to 2.6%), and I think that's a legitimate knock on him, but he's also had a lot of third and longs to convert because of our offensive issues.  Five of his 11 interceptions have come on third and 10+ (on 33 attempts, a 15% INT rate), and another two on third and 7-9 (on 21 attempts, a 10% INT rate).  So that is something to work on, but those are less damaging interceptions than on first down or second or third and short.  Also, eight of his 11 interceptions have happened when losing, which is what you want; when the team is down, you want a "gunslinger" who will take some risks to try to bring the team back (as he did against Oregon).  Only two of his interceptions were when the team was tied, and none were when we were leading by fewer than 14 points (he had one with a lead of over 14).  By and large, this is the pattern you want in a QB; careful with the ball when we have a small lead and at favorable down/distances but willing to take a chance on third and long and when we are trailing.

He was definitely less of a threat with his legs this year; last year he had 92 yards of positive yardage; this year he had negative yardage for the year.  Part of that is we've given up sacks.  But certainly early in the year, he rarely scrambled for positive yards, and on read options, he almost never kept, allowing defensive ends to key in on the back.  I think that is the after effects of his injury and surgery, and I think his mobility did improve in the later part of the season.

From my perspective, there are a couple things he can work on.  His mobility has already been discussed, and if it really was an after effect of his injury and surgery, then I expect him to be better next year.  The second thing will be hitting more of his receivers in stride now that JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Kaden Smith, and Trent Irwin will be gone.  A lot of the throws to those guys were meant to hit them in one on one coverage where the receiver could make a play on the ball and out-muscle the defender.  With the receivers he will have next year, he'll have more of an opportunity to throw to a receiver who has gotten a step on their DB, and will be hopefully be able to make yards after the catch if the ball is thrown well.  And as other have noted, he can also improve on quick throws.

But overall, I disagree with the assessment that he regressed this year.  He ended the season as the top Pac-12 QB in PER and yards per attempt (the latter tied with Browning, a senior), second in completion percentage, yards per game and touchdowns (Minshew was tops in all of those categories, because he had about 50% more attempts than Costello).  Shockingly, Costello was second in the Pac-12 in attempts, so to be able to have a high PER despite the high usage rate says something.

BC