[81alum]

TheFarm07,

I would love to see the same kind of analysis for us included. Just for laughs, I'll add my own unschooled thoughts.

I think Alanna is a big loss--bigger than her points and boards (and blocks). She was the mature "glue" that held the team together. At the same time, I think we will have more overall talent next year. I think I think that we will go as far as Haley Jones takes us next year. Not that she will necessarily be the star of the team, but I think she might be key in reconstituting the team post-Alanna. Fran B. could make important contributions, but I am concerned she is too raw as a basketball player to make those contributions early on.

Who is our post player? I think Ashton P. will have a ways to go before she is a realistic threat to take over that slot. Maya D.? I just don't see it unless there is a pretty dramatic transformation over summer. Nadia F.? I hope, but, still, I haven't seen enough from anyone to suggest Alanna will not be missed in a big way. That's why I am hoping Jones, in a Magic Johnson kind of way, can do whatever is needed to make us a strong, well-rounded team.

But, it is your analysis I'd like to see.

I agree about Alanna - it was as much her presence on the court as her production - someone to go to when they needed a score, especially down low, someone to take pressure off the others.

As to Maya's improvement - whenever I had the opportunity to see Alanna warmup (albeit very brief snippets when on tv) she would always stand under the basket and shoot balls off the little square on the backboard from both sides.She also looked for that spot whenever she drove. I don't know if Maya practices that but so very often Maya appears to just throw the ball up in the vicinity of the backboard. Bird had the same tendency

At some point last year someone said that Maya Dodson had been shooting 1000 hook shots a day, and after I heard that I saw her shoot several hook shots (and make a couple).  This was in the Fall, I think.  She was clearly trying to improve that part of her game.

Some of the TV commentators, before Ionescu announced she was returning to Oregon, predicted that Stanford would be the preseason #1 team next year.  I'm not quite so optimistic and agree that Oregon is now the team to beat.

However, I DO expect Dodson to get better over the summer, just as Erica McCall made her biggest strides over the summer between her sophomore and junior years.  How much better remains to be seen.  I DO expect the incoming freshmen to be making major contributions to next year's team.

Now, I can imagine a "best case" better than what follows and also a "worse case" worse than what follows, but I think these two cases span a reasonable range of possibilities.


Best case scenario:

Dodson improves markedly, on par with McCall, and becomes a major inside scoring threat.
Lexie Hull, in the absence of injury, becomes a McPhee like star similar to what she showed at the beginning of this season.
Jones starts from the first game and proves she can play excellent defense and offense.
The other freshmen all give significant minutes as they each build toward eventual starting roles in a future year.
Carrington and Williams stay healthy and Carrington gains consistency in her senior season.
Someone else we might not expect--maybe Anna Wilson, or Alyssa Brewer, or Jenna Brown, or Nadia Fingall in her senior year--has a break out season.  Lacey Hull might become just as good offensively as Lexie Hull.

Having figured out how to beat Oregon in 2019, we do it even more convincingly in 2020, win the Pac 12 regular season, and make the Final Four where we have a good shot at winning a game or even two more.  With a team like this, a good draw, a down year for some of the other powerhouses, and a bit of luck, Tara could get her 3rd NC.

Worst case scenario:

Dodson never quite recovers completely and continues to be awkward around the basket.
Lexie Hull has already shown us her ceiling.  
All of the freshmen have trouble adjusting to the college level.  Jones is good but hampered by fouls and inconsistency.  The others all need at least a season to adjust and none of them get significant minutes in the Spring, or when a game is on the line.
One or more key players struggle with injuries.  Maybe Dijonai has used up her knees, much like Kaylee Johnson could not physically perform at her freshman level after her body began to deteriorate.
The current players all play about as well as they did play this year, but no better.  There are no surprise breakouts from familiar players.

The year is a transition year, where Smith's loss can't be immediately replaced.  We finish 3rd in the Pac 12 and lose in the Sweet 16.  But the future looks bright even if 2019-20 looks a lot like 2014-15.

[81alum]

TheFarm07,

I would love to see the same kind of analysis for us included. Just for laughs, I'll add my own unschooled thoughts.

I think Alanna is a big loss--bigger than her points and boards (and blocks). She was the mature "glue" that held the team together. At the same time, I think we will have more overall talent next year. I think I think that we will go as far as Haley Jones takes us next year. Not that she will necessarily be the star of the team, but I think she might be key in reconstituting the team post-Alanna. Fran B. could make important contributions, but I am concerned she is too raw as a basketball player to make those contributions early on.

Who is our post player? I think Ashton P. will have a ways to go before she is a realistic threat to take over that slot. Maya D.? I just don't see it unless there is a pretty dramatic transformation over summer. Nadia F.? I hope, but, still, I haven't seen enough from anyone to suggest Alanna will not be missed in a big way. That's why I am hoping Jones, in a Magic Johnson kind of way, can do whatever is needed to make us a strong, well-rounded team.

But, it is your analysis I'd like to see.

I agree about Alanna - it was as much her presence on the court as her production - someone to go to when they needed a score, especially down low, someone to take pressure off the others.

As to Maya's improvement - whenever I had the opportunity to see Alanna warmup (albeit very brief snippets when on tv) she would always stand under the basket and shoot balls off the little square on the backboard from both sides.She also looked for that spot whenever she drove. I don't know if Maya practices that but so very often Maya appears to just throw the ball up in the vicinity of the backboard. Bird had the same tendency

At some point last year someone said that Maya Dodson had been shooting 1000 hook shots a day, and after I heard that I saw her shoot several hook shots (and make a couple).  This was in the Fall, I think.  She was clearly trying to improve that part of her game.

Some of the TV commentators, before Ionescu announced she was returning to Oregon, predicted that Stanford would be the preseason #1 team next year.  I'm not quite so optimistic and agree that Oregon is now the team to beat.

However, I DO expect Dodson to get better over the summer, just as Erica McCall made her biggest strides over the summer between her sophomore and junior years.  How much better remains to be seen.  I DO expect the incoming freshmen to be making major contributions to next year's team.

Now, I can imagine a "best case" better than what follows and also a "worse case" worse than what follows, but I think these two cases span a reasonable range of possibilities.


Best case scenario:

Dodson improves markedly, on par with McCall, and becomes a major inside scoring threat.
Lexie Hull, in the absence of injury, becomes a McPhee like star similar to what she showed at the beginning of this season.
Jones starts from the first game and proves she can play excellent defense and offense.
The other freshmen all give significant minutes as they each build toward eventual starting roles in a future year.
Carrington and Williams stay healthy and Carrington gains consistency in her senior season.
Someone else we might not expect--maybe Anna Wilson, or Alyssa Brewer, or Jenna Brown, or Nadia Fingall in her senior year--has a break out season.  Lacey Hull might become just as good offensively as Lexie Hull.

Having figured out how to beat Oregon in 2019, we do it even more convincingly in 2020, win the Pac 12 regular season, and make the Final Four where we have a good shot at winning a game or even two more.  With a team like this, a good draw, a down year for some of the other powerhouses, and a bit of luck, Tara could get her 3rd NC.

Worst case scenario:

Dodson never quite recovers completely and continues to be awkward around the basket.
Lexie Hull has already shown us her ceiling.  
All of the freshmen have trouble adjusting to the college level.  Jones is good but hampered by fouls and inconsistency.  The others all need at least a season to adjust and none of them get significant minutes in the Spring, or when a game is on the line.
One or more key players struggle with injuries.  Maybe Dijonai has used up her knees, much like Kaylee Johnson could not physically perform at her freshman level after her body began to deteriorate.
The current players all play about as well as they did play this year, but no better.  There are no surprise breakouts from familiar players.

The year is a transition year, where Smith's loss can't be immediately replaced.  We finish 3rd in the Pac 12 and lose in the Sweet 16.  But the future looks bright even if 2019-20 looks a lot like 2014-15.