[StanfordMatt]

I am afraid I agree with you.  Pitching is looking very iffy putting us behind the early in the game.  I am very worried if we have to go through the losers bracket as I don't see enough pitching to have a chance if that happens.

Intuitively, I agreed with you that our pitching has been "iffy" but I had no idea just how "iffy" until I started looking at the numbers compared to last year. For example, Little gave up more earned runs last night than he gave up in all of 2018. This year, in 33.1 innings pitches, Little has given up 14 earned runs for an ERA of 3.78. Last year, in 45.1 innings pitched, he gave up THREE earned runs for an ERA of 0.60. He's not alone in this regard. Of returning players, here are our top 6 pitchers in innings this year and how their numbers stack up to 2018:

B. Beck (78.1): 2.43 ERA in 2018; 3.68 ERA in 2019
E. Miller (67.2): 4.07 ERA in 2018; 2.93 ERA in 2019
J. Palisch (50.1): 1.72 ERA in 2018; 4.47 ERA in 2019
W. Matthiessen (42.2): 2.00 ERA in 2018; 4.22 ERA in 2019
Z. Grech (38): 2.65 ERA in 2018; 3.08 ERA in 2019
J. Little (33.1): 0.60 ERA in 2018; 3.78 ERA in 2019

A couple caveats: Beck and Matthiessen have been thrust into much more challenging roles this year so it is understandable that their numbers would go down. Even still, having five of your top six returning pitchers see a decline in their ERAs is not a recipe for success. Miller is the one exception as he has no doubt done wonders for his draft stock. I would imagine we'll see him in Game 2 of our regional next weekend. All in all, our pitching has still been solid overall. This year, we rank a respectable third in the conference with a team ERA of 3.49 (compared to a league leading 2.83 in 2018). But make no mistake, this year's team is much more dependent on its bats to carry the load.

Last year's staff also benefited from the presence of two stud SPs who both went high in last year's draft - Tristan Beck and Kris Bubic. Miller has risen to the occasion, but Matthiessen as a weekend starter has always been a stopgap measure. Throw in 1st round draft pick Nico Hoerner and there are a lot of reasons to like last year's squad over this one on paper. But there is one thing about this year's team that we didn't have last year. Injury luck. Last year, Kinamon missed the whole season, Wulff missed the majority of conference play and never truly got back to 100%, and Handley was out for the stretch run. This season, Stowers missed a game early on after a collision in the outfield but I believe that is the only game a regular starter has missed this whole season due to injury. Truly remarkable.

Even with a less dominant pitching staff, I like our chances of making a run to Omaha, although Hulk, feel free to go to Wichita instead if it suits your fancy ;) This is a battle tested, tight knit group that is fully healthy (knock on wood).

[StanfordMatt]

I am afraid I agree with you.  Pitching is looking very iffy putting us behind the early in the game.  I am very worried if we have to go through the losers bracket as I don't see enough pitching to have a chance if that happens.

Intuitively, I agreed with you that our pitching has been "iffy" but I had no idea just how "iffy" until I started looking at the numbers compared to last year. For example, Little gave up more earned runs last night than he gave up in all of 2018. This year, in 33.1 innings pitches, Little has given up 14 earned runs for an ERA of 3.78. Last year, in 45.1 innings pitched, he gave up THREE earned runs for an ERA of 0.60. He's not alone in this regard. Of returning players, here are our top 6 pitchers in innings this year and how their numbers stack up to 2018:

B. Beck (78.1): 2.43 ERA in 2018; 3.68 ERA in 2019
E. Miller (67.2): 4.07 ERA in 2018; 2.93 ERA in 2019
J. Palisch (50.1): 1.72 ERA in 2018; 4.47 ERA in 2019
W. Matthiessen (42.2): 2.00 ERA in 2018; 4.22 ERA in 2019
Z. Grech (38): 2.65 ERA in 2018; 3.08 ERA in 2019
J. Little (33.1): 0.60 ERA in 2018; 3.78 ERA in 2019

A couple caveats: Beck and Matthiessen have been thrust into much more challenging roles this year so it is understandable that their numbers would go down. Even still, having five of your top six returning pitchers see a decline in their ERAs is not a recipe for success. Miller is the one exception as he has no doubt done wonders for his draft stock. I would imagine we'll see him in Game 2 of our regional next weekend. All in all, our pitching has still been solid overall. This year, we rank a respectable third in the conference with a team ERA of 3.49 (compared to a league leading 2.83 in 2018). But make no mistake, this year's team is much more dependent on its bats to carry the load.

Last year's staff also benefited from the presence of two stud SPs who both went high in last year's draft - Tristan Beck and Kris Bubic. Miller has risen to the occasion, but Matthiessen as a weekend starter has always been a stopgap measure. Throw in 1st round draft pick Nico Hoerner and there are a lot of reasons to like last year's squad over this one on paper. But there is one thing about this year's team that we didn't have last year. Injury luck. Last year, Kinamon missed the whole season, Wulff missed the majority of conference play and never truly got back to 100%, and Handley was out for the stretch run. This season, Stowers missed a game early on after a collision in the outfield but I believe that is the only game a regular starter has missed this whole season due to injury. Truly remarkable.

Even with a less dominant pitching staff, I like our chances of making a run to Omaha, although Hulk, feel free to go to Wichita instead if it suits your fancy ;) This is a battle tested, tight knit group that is fully healthy (knock on wood).