[BosCard]

Carrington still in the full knee brace

Bet she doesn’t play the 2.  3/4 yes :)

It is a real conundrum to figure out the lineup.  But:

1) As Bob notes, injuries may have a lot to do with it.  Carrington, Fingall, Dodson, Lexie, and who knows who else may all be limited due to wear and tear. 

2) Tara is not a very starter-oriented coach.  She will start the season with a large rotation and that rotation will gradually shrink as players sort themselves out via their play.  Against Idaho last year, the second game of the season, 10 players got 10 minutes or more.   Against Notre Dame it was 7 players.  This year our rotation could start off even larger but will probably get down to 7 by the end.

3) Tara is quite situational according to match ups.  Carrington has played the 4--she is plenty physical and not small.  Bonnie played the stretch 4 against certain opponents.  Coffee had an important role against Baylor.  Tara will go small or go big, and sometimes do both just to discombobulate the opposing offense that won't know quite what to expect.  A bit like switching from man to zone to interrupt their flow.  So there could be some "specialists" that play depending on the opposition.

4) Looking at the end of last season is instructive.  Carrington was more effective than earlier in the year but was losing minutes--she was wearing out.  Lacie had at times been one of our best perimeter defenders but was victimized late and Lexie resumed taking the lion's share of the wing minutes by the end. 

5) If we stay in the Princeton, as seems to make sense with Jones coming on, the 5 sits on the elbow with 1-4 all interchangeably shuffling through their progressions.  But will Tara stay with this offense given the personnel she has now?  If she does, then figuring out people's numbered positions are not very important on the offensive end.

I do think that if Lexie is fully healthy and gets back to form she is going to have a lot of minutes.   She should become the next McPhee and I think she will.  She has too much offensive potential to leave her out.  And #14 isn't a bad ranking, even if it is not top 5.  Lacie is the one who might suffer declining minutes.  She already was at the end of the season as Lexie got healthier.

Maybe we can build off of 81alum's idea that at the end of the season, the rotation tightens.  And to make things easier, let's say it's a rotation of 8 players.  The game is something like, end of the regular season vs. Oregon or Pac-12 tournament final or Elite Eight in the NCAA tournament.  What 8 players do you think will be playing the bulk of the minutes?  Here's my guess:

• Williams
  
• Carrington
  
• Wilson
  
• Hull, Lexie
  
• Jones
  
• Belibi
  
• Dodson
  
• Fingall
  

This is predicated on the assumption that Wilson will raise her 3-pt shooting percentage to the low to mid 30's.  If she can't do that then I think Lacie Hull takes her minutes.

At the end of the year it was Wilson who played the RosGo role of defensive stopper.  I think that will be important, as she is quicker than either of the Hulls.  I think 8 (or even 9) is a reasonable rotation given Carrington's injury history.

Also there's a lot of hope being placed on Belibi's shoulders to contribute as a frosh.

I think the single greatest need next year is for another 3-pt shooter to emerge.  IMHO Williams is really our only proven threat, Carrington and the Hulls very streaky.

I fully admit that I may be out on a limb on Belibi being able to contribute significant minutes her freshman year.  However, here is my thinking.  She won't be asked to do things like score with her back to the basket in the low post.  Instead her role will be to rebound, be disruptive defensively, make all the hustle plays, and score in transition and off offensive rebounds.  She is quick enough to stay in front of guards, strong enough to guard posts and has a brobdingnagian wingspan.  That combination of quickness, strength and wingspan give her a big advantage when it comes to rebounding, getting in passing lanes and getting to loose balls.  I think she could be like Kawhi Leonard was in college.  Not a great scorer initially but impacted the game dramatically with his defense and rebounding.

[BosCard]

Carrington still in the full knee brace

Bet she doesn’t play the 2.  3/4 yes :)

It is a real conundrum to figure out the lineup.  But:

1) As Bob notes, injuries may have a lot to do with it.  Carrington, Fingall, Dodson, Lexie, and who knows who else may all be limited due to wear and tear. 

2) Tara is not a very starter-oriented coach.  She will start the season with a large rotation and that rotation will gradually shrink as players sort themselves out via their play.  Against Idaho last year, the second game of the season, 10 players got 10 minutes or more.   Against Notre Dame it was 7 players.  This year our rotation could start off even larger but will probably get down to 7 by the end.

3) Tara is quite situational according to match ups.  Carrington has played the 4--she is plenty physical and not small.  Bonnie played the stretch 4 against certain opponents.  Coffee had an important role against Baylor.  Tara will go small or go big, and sometimes do both just to discombobulate the opposing offense that won't know quite what to expect.  A bit like switching from man to zone to interrupt their flow.  So there could be some "specialists" that play depending on the opposition.

4) Looking at the end of last season is instructive.  Carrington was more effective than earlier in the year but was losing minutes--she was wearing out.  Lacie had at times been one of our best perimeter defenders but was victimized late and Lexie resumed taking the lion's share of the wing minutes by the end. 

5) If we stay in the Princeton, as seems to make sense with Jones coming on, the 5 sits on the elbow with 1-4 all interchangeably shuffling through their progressions.  But will Tara stay with this offense given the personnel she has now?  If she does, then figuring out people's numbered positions are not very important on the offensive end.

I do think that if Lexie is fully healthy and gets back to form she is going to have a lot of minutes.   She should become the next McPhee and I think she will.  She has too much offensive potential to leave her out.  And #14 isn't a bad ranking, even if it is not top 5.  Lacie is the one who might suffer declining minutes.  She already was at the end of the season as Lexie got healthier.

Maybe we can build off of 81alum's idea that at the end of the season, the rotation tightens.  And to make things easier, let's say it's a rotation of 8 players.  The game is something like, end of the regular season vs. Oregon or Pac-12 tournament final or Elite Eight in the NCAA tournament.  What 8 players do you think will be playing the bulk of the minutes?  Here's my guess:

• Williams
  
• Carrington
  
• Wilson
  
• Hull, Lexie
  
• Jones
  
• Belibi
  
• Dodson
  
• Fingall
  

This is predicated on the assumption that Wilson will raise her 3-pt shooting percentage to the low to mid 30's.  If she can't do that then I think Lacie Hull takes her minutes.

At the end of the year it was Wilson who played the RosGo role of defensive stopper.  I think that will be important, as she is quicker than either of the Hulls.  I think 8 (or even 9) is a reasonable rotation given Carrington's injury history.

Also there's a lot of hope being placed on Belibi's shoulders to contribute as a frosh.

I think the single greatest need next year is for another 3-pt shooter to emerge.  IMHO Williams is really our only proven threat, Carrington and the Hulls very streaky.

I fully admit that I may be out on a limb on Belibi being able to contribute significant minutes her freshman year.  However, here is my thinking.  She won't be asked to do things like score with her back to the basket in the low post.  Instead her role will be to rebound, be disruptive defensively, make all the hustle plays, and score in transition and off offensive rebounds.  She is quick enough to stay in front of guards, strong enough to guard posts and has a brobdingnagian wingspan.  That combination of quickness, strength and wingspan give her a big advantage when it comes to rebounding, getting in passing lanes and getting to loose balls.  I think she could be like Kawhi Leonard was in college.  Not a great scorer initially but impacted the game dramatically with his defense and rebounding.