[CardinalSagehen]

One dominant win over a good team doesn’t solve all our problems. That said, I believe the evidence of great coaching - actual fundamental improvement, particularly among our freshmen and inexperienced starting ILBs - is starting to show.  

So it’s not entirely crazy to begin reconsidering our ever-so-slim chances of winning the North. We often speculate on far-fetched matters here. In addition, it would please me enough if we merely entered temporary contention for the North, which would only take Oregon losing their next game before we do. This could have happened this past Saturday, had Cal been able to muster any offense with their backup QB.

Our chances seem to depend on (a) going 5-0 in our remaining conference games; and (b) Oregon going 5-2 (with two North losses) or 4-3. (The two-loss scenario presumes a three-way tie with Oregon and UW, in which all teams would be 1-1 against each other and the tie-breaker would be our better North Division record - quite unlikely.)  

Basically, we want Huskies wins and Ducks losses the rest of the way - so that's what I'll be watching this weekend as Stanford takes its bye. Oregon does not strike me as such a great or dominant team that a loss to any team on their remaining schedule would be totally inconceivable. In fact, I was much more surprised when they lost at Arizona in late-November back in 2013, catapulting us to the CCG and the Rose Bowl, than I'd be if this year's team lost two games. I think the biggest problem is that we have no margin for error, and we're not all that great (or healthy) ourselves.

Thank you for permitting me my daily delusion.  Now back to the real world.

Cardinal Sagehen,  I have to admit that in my hope of hopes I have entertained the exact same delusional dreams.

I was so wishful that I even looked up the pac 12 tiebreaker rules. It would seem somewhat possible that Washington could beat Oregon, then Oregon could lose Some other game in the pac 12 N., maybe even to Oregon State.

But when I reviewed the tiebreaker rules, my impression was that it doesn’t matter whether oregon got two conference losses in the north or one in the north, one in the south: division standings are based on the conference, not division, record.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/pac-12.com/...tion%3famp

So if Oregon had two conference losses, even if both were in the north, they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Stanford. So Not only would Stanford have to run the table in conference,Oregon would have to lose *three* conference games, which seems unlikely barring a crazy number of injuries.

But yes, like you, I am sayin’ there’s a chance.

I agree that the Cardinal is dreaming, but his two-loss scenario necessitates a three-way tie for first, with Oregon, Washington and Stanford all sitting at 7-2 in conference play, with each holding the tie-breaker over a different team (Oregon over Stanford, Stanford over Washington and Washington over Oregon).  My understanding of the rules says that, in such a situation, the north-only record is relevant.  So if Oregon lost to Washington and one other north team, and both Washington and Stanford managed to win out in conference play, Stanford would have a north record of 4-1, while Oregon and Washington would both be 3-2, which would tip the balance in favor of Stanford.

This scenario fails if Washington is not in a three-way tie with Oregon and Stanford at the top, or if Oregon's second loss (assuming Washington beats them) comes at the hands of a south team.  Washington has already lost to two north teams (Cal and Stanford), so they have no chance in such a three-way tie.  

None of these scenarios is likely, but calculating the paths to a north title is still entertaining.  I also agree that Oregon does not look invulnerable, so a few losses are not totally improbable.  Let's see.

Exactly, Astroturf. It’s probably the case that (three Oregon losses) is more likely than (two Oregon losses in the North + UW wins out). Either scenario is multiplied by the slim probability that we win out, not counting ND. But stranger things have happened. We did just dominate the defending champs, which has to count for something.  

I also now feel like we could have beaten Oregon with a healthy QB.  Now that KJ has sat for two weeks, it seems like his injury was every bit as bad as it appeared. It’s probably a small fracture.  Imagine how different the race would look had we won that game, in which total offense was roughly even and our defense played well enough to win.  We’d be in first place having played three of our four toughest games, holding the tie-breakers over Oregon and Washington, which both have more games remaining.  I’m not saying we were all that close to beating Oregon, but QB is the most important position on the field and KJ’s heart was in the right place but he was awful on that day.

Coulda shoulda woulda. I’m still excited to see how it all plays out. Given the bye and our next opponent at home, we’re unlikely to lose for a few weeks, which leaves quite a bit of time for the Ducks to start discombobulating.

[CardinalSagehen]

One dominant win over a good team doesn’t solve all our problems. That said, I believe the evidence of great coaching - actual fundamental improvement, particularly among our freshmen and inexperienced starting ILBs - is starting to show.  

So it’s not entirely crazy to begin reconsidering our ever-so-slim chances of winning the North. We often speculate on far-fetched matters here. In addition, it would please me enough if we merely entered temporary contention for the North, which would only take Oregon losing their next game before we do. This could have happened this past Saturday, had Cal been able to muster any offense with their backup QB.

Our chances seem to depend on (a) going 5-0 in our remaining conference games; and (b) Oregon going 5-2 (with two North losses) or 4-3. (The two-loss scenario presumes a three-way tie with Oregon and UW, in which all teams would be 1-1 against each other and the tie-breaker would be our better North Division record - quite unlikely.)  

Basically, we want Huskies wins and Ducks losses the rest of the way - so that's what I'll be watching this weekend as Stanford takes its bye. Oregon does not strike me as such a great or dominant team that a loss to any team on their remaining schedule would be totally inconceivable. In fact, I was much more surprised when they lost at Arizona in late-November back in 2013, catapulting us to the CCG and the Rose Bowl, than I'd be if this year's team lost two games. I think the biggest problem is that we have no margin for error, and we're not all that great (or healthy) ourselves.

Thank you for permitting me my daily delusion.  Now back to the real world.

Cardinal Sagehen,  I have to admit that in my hope of hopes I have entertained the exact same delusional dreams.

I was so wishful that I even looked up the pac 12 tiebreaker rules. It would seem somewhat possible that Washington could beat Oregon, then Oregon could lose Some other game in the pac 12 N., maybe even to Oregon State.

But when I reviewed the tiebreaker rules, my impression was that it doesn’t matter whether oregon got two conference losses in the north or one in the north, one in the south: division standings are based on the conference, not division, record.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/pac-12.com/...tion%3famp

So if Oregon had two conference losses, even if both were in the north, they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Stanford. So Not only would Stanford have to run the table in conference,Oregon would have to lose *three* conference games, which seems unlikely barring a crazy number of injuries.

But yes, like you, I am sayin’ there’s a chance.

I agree that the Cardinal is dreaming, but his two-loss scenario necessitates a three-way tie for first, with Oregon, Washington and Stanford all sitting at 7-2 in conference play, with each holding the tie-breaker over a different team (Oregon over Stanford, Stanford over Washington and Washington over Oregon).  My understanding of the rules says that, in such a situation, the north-only record is relevant.  So if Oregon lost to Washington and one other north team, and both Washington and Stanford managed to win out in conference play, Stanford would have a north record of 4-1, while Oregon and Washington would both be 3-2, which would tip the balance in favor of Stanford.

This scenario fails if Washington is not in a three-way tie with Oregon and Stanford at the top, or if Oregon's second loss (assuming Washington beats them) comes at the hands of a south team.  Washington has already lost to two north teams (Cal and Stanford), so they have no chance in such a three-way tie.  

None of these scenarios is likely, but calculating the paths to a north title is still entertaining.  I also agree that Oregon does not look invulnerable, so a few losses are not totally improbable.  Let's see.

Exactly, Astroturf. It’s probably the case that (three Oregon losses) is more likely than (two Oregon losses in the North + UW wins out). Either scenario is multiplied by the slim probability that we win out, not counting ND. But stranger things have happened. We did just dominate the defending champs, which has to count for something.  

I also now feel like we could have beaten Oregon with a healthy QB.  Now that KJ has sat for two weeks, it seems like his injury was every bit as bad as it appeared. It’s probably a small fracture.  Imagine how different the race would look had we won that game, in which total offense was roughly even and our defense played well enough to win.  We’d be in first place having played three of our four toughest games, holding the tie-breakers over Oregon and Washington, which both have more games remaining.  I’m not saying we were all that close to beating Oregon, but QB is the most important position on the field and KJ’s heart was in the right place but he was awful on that day.

Coulda shoulda woulda. I’m still excited to see how it all plays out. Given the bye and our next opponent at home, we’re unlikely to lose for a few weeks, which leaves quite a bit of time for the Ducks to start discombobulating.