[BostonCard]

So I ran the numbers sampling from the actual data from the game against Cal (with the caveat that the sample size especially for the running plays, was small) To be fair, I considered sacks and Mills scrambles to be pass plays as I assume they were not designed runs.  Pretty much regardless of what we called, the probability of "success", defined as getting a first down is between 75 and 80% (because it is a simulation, it fluctuates a bit).  The probability of getting a touchdown (a play of >26 yards) on that set of downs was low regardless of what we did, but zero if we ran twice (we did not have two running plays that together added up to 26 yards), 15% if we passed twice, and about 6% if we passed once.  Of course, a fresh set of downs would have offered a chance to score a touchdown from somewhere inside of the Cal 22, but I didn't want to program and run that.  The flip side of that is that around 7% of the time Mills will throw an interception if he passes it twice.  You could make an argument that this is an unacceptable risk at that stage of the game.  

That being said, to the extent that previous plays in the game are representative of what might have happened, and taking sample size into consideration, it is not clear to me that the numbers prove that one or the other call is clearly a better strategy.

BC

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And Shaw and Harbs are nothing alike.  And I am grateful for that on many fronts and am fine that Harbaugh moved on.  But I also know that when it comes to running a football program - including the W/L column - Shaw can't hold a candle to Harbaugh.  Cue BC drumming p respective records, blah, blah, blah, which he better do quickly because the point is only going to become more clear to even the most ardent Shawpologists.  

There is no comparison to where Stanford and Michigan are right now program-wise, which is pretty depressing inasmuch as Harbs handed Shaw the keys to a Ferrari (while Harbs himself was given a functional Dodge in Ann Arbor).

Come on, man, Harbs was given the keys to the winningest program in division 1.

BC

[BostonCard]

So I ran the numbers sampling from the actual data from the game against Cal (with the caveat that the sample size especially for the running plays, was small) To be fair, I considered sacks and Mills scrambles to be pass plays as I assume they were not designed runs.  Pretty much regardless of what we called, the probability of "success", defined as getting a first down is between 75 and 80% (because it is a simulation, it fluctuates a bit).  The probability of getting a touchdown (a play of >26 yards) on that set of downs was low regardless of what we did, but zero if we ran twice (we did not have two running plays that together added up to 26 yards), 15% if we passed twice, and about 6% if we passed once.  Of course, a fresh set of downs would have offered a chance to score a touchdown from somewhere inside of the Cal 22, but I didn't want to program and run that.  The flip side of that is that around 7% of the time Mills will throw an interception if he passes it twice.  You could make an argument that this is an unacceptable risk at that stage of the game.  

That being said, to the extent that previous plays in the game are representative of what might have happened, and taking sample size into consideration, it is not clear to me that the numbers prove that one or the other call is clearly a better strategy.

BC

---

And Shaw and Harbs are nothing alike.  And I am grateful for that on many fronts and am fine that Harbaugh moved on.  But I also know that when it comes to running a football program - including the W/L column - Shaw can't hold a candle to Harbaugh.  Cue BC drumming p respective records, blah, blah, blah, which he better do quickly because the point is only going to become more clear to even the most ardent Shawpologists.  

There is no comparison to where Stanford and Michigan are right now program-wise, which is pretty depressing inasmuch as Harbs handed Shaw the keys to a Ferrari (while Harbs himself was given a functional Dodge in Ann Arbor).

Come on, man, Harbs was given the keys to the winningest program in division 1.

BC