[winflop]

Sorry, no way do you go for it on fourth and inches when you have a chance to take the lead with less than three minutes left in the game.  Come on, that would have been an AYFKM moment.

My point is that your goal was to maximize the probability of getting a first down or touchdown,  you really can’t blame going with the QB who has been getting 8 yards per attempt, not the running back who has been getting 3 ypc.

After all, wasn’t it you who called the coaches decision to takiethe ball out of Andrew Luck’s arm and running the ball on the ground in the Fiesta Bowl an AYFKM moment?

Like I said, easy to say we should have zigged when we zagged.

BC

If YPA vs. YPC is going to be your metric for evaluating the plays to call for getting a first down, then you almost always will pass the ball.  The number of times a Stanford team has had a better YPC than a YPA in a particular game is very small.  It may have happened a handful of times in the last several decades (though I can't recall any off the top of my head).   

You also assume two runs don't get you a first down (which you admit is the most important thing - and I agree with that).

IF Stanford had run twice, and IF Cal had burned two timeouts (or even one just on fourth down) and Stanford faced fourth and inches, then NO, I would not have called a decision to go for it AYFKM.  Not even close.  Because I could support Shaw believing and acting on the conviction that (a) a FG with 2+ minutes left and Cal with the ball is not as strong a position as (b) Stanford with first and 10, the ability to run out the clock and at worst attempt a GW FG at the end of regulation from where they were.  [If Stanford had the 2014 D, then yes, kick the FG, no question].

P.S.  My beef in the Fiesta Bowl was first that he didn't let Andrew continue to move Stanford into the end zone on that last drive in regulation (Stanford was going through Okie State's D like $hit through a goose at that point); but second, if he wanted to take away the risk of an INT, at least run the ball or let Andrew keep it on roll out to get closer.  Instead, we all sat there in disbelief as the clock wound down 40+ seconds so Stanford could line up a 37 yard GW FGA with a kicker returning from injury who had already missed a FGA earlier in the game.  So often Shaw does not maximize the team's chances to win, especially when making strategic decisions on offense.

Maybe the problem is that Shaw is just too much like our prior head coach.  Close your eyes and cast your mind back to the end of the 2009 Big Game.  

Here, I'll help:

With four and a half minutes left, Stanford had the opportunity to drive down the field to tie or take the lead. Instead, they were shut down yet again. Luck couldn’t find a receiver and Gerhart was buried. On fourth and eight on the Cardinal’s own 23 yard line, Harbaugh  elected to roll the dice. On fourth down, Luck’s pass to Jim Dray was broken up and Stanford turned the ball over. A heroic performance by the Cardinal defense limited the damage to a field goal and Stanford started their final drive at their own 42, suddenly things didn’t look too bad. There were two and a half minutes left, a relatively short field, with Luck and Gerhart behind the line.
Luck broke off two runs to bring the ball past midfield. On second down, Luck was forced from the pocket and dumped the ball off to Gerhart, who broke two tackles and rumbled down the sideline, he was only stopped by two Cal defenders on the 13 yard line. It was first down with over a minute and a half remaining. It was time for Toby Gerhart. The first play was an incomplete pass to Coby Fleener in the endzone. No big deal, there are at least three more plays left. On second down, Luck drops back and fires over the field, again towards Fleener. The ball doesn’t make it, Mike Mohamed read Luck like a book and sat on the pass, intercepting the ball on the six yard line. The Bears kneeled three times, and that was that. Cal fans rushed the field.
. 
Almost a minute and a half remaining. On the 13 yard line. Best RB in the nation.  Doesn't touch the ball. 

Of course, Harbs is a genius and Shaw's play calling is inexcusable.  Still the same outcome, though: Cal fans rushing the field.

Night & day difference. In 2009, Luck was a freshman and Toby Gerhart was the best player in college football. In 2011, Luck was the best player in college football and settling for a 40+ yarder is very different then settling for a 30-yarder.

In both cases, the head coach made a stupid decision that cost Stanford the game.

[winflop]

Sorry, no way do you go for it on fourth and inches when you have a chance to take the lead with less than three minutes left in the game.  Come on, that would have been an AYFKM moment.

My point is that your goal was to maximize the probability of getting a first down or touchdown,  you really can’t blame going with the QB who has been getting 8 yards per attempt, not the running back who has been getting 3 ypc.

After all, wasn’t it you who called the coaches decision to takiethe ball out of Andrew Luck’s arm and running the ball on the ground in the Fiesta Bowl an AYFKM moment?

Like I said, easy to say we should have zigged when we zagged.

BC

If YPA vs. YPC is going to be your metric for evaluating the plays to call for getting a first down, then you almost always will pass the ball.  The number of times a Stanford team has had a better YPC than a YPA in a particular game is very small.  It may have happened a handful of times in the last several decades (though I can't recall any off the top of my head).   

You also assume two runs don't get you a first down (which you admit is the most important thing - and I agree with that).

IF Stanford had run twice, and IF Cal had burned two timeouts (or even one just on fourth down) and Stanford faced fourth and inches, then NO, I would not have called a decision to go for it AYFKM.  Not even close.  Because I could support Shaw believing and acting on the conviction that (a) a FG with 2+ minutes left and Cal with the ball is not as strong a position as (b) Stanford with first and 10, the ability to run out the clock and at worst attempt a GW FG at the end of regulation from where they were.  [If Stanford had the 2014 D, then yes, kick the FG, no question].

P.S.  My beef in the Fiesta Bowl was first that he didn't let Andrew continue to move Stanford into the end zone on that last drive in regulation (Stanford was going through Okie State's D like $hit through a goose at that point); but second, if he wanted to take away the risk of an INT, at least run the ball or let Andrew keep it on roll out to get closer.  Instead, we all sat there in disbelief as the clock wound down 40+ seconds so Stanford could line up a 37 yard GW FGA with a kicker returning from injury who had already missed a FGA earlier in the game.  So often Shaw does not maximize the team's chances to win, especially when making strategic decisions on offense.

Maybe the problem is that Shaw is just too much like our prior head coach.  Close your eyes and cast your mind back to the end of the 2009 Big Game.  

Here, I'll help:

With four and a half minutes left, Stanford had the opportunity to drive down the field to tie or take the lead. Instead, they were shut down yet again. Luck couldn’t find a receiver and Gerhart was buried. On fourth and eight on the Cardinal’s own 23 yard line, Harbaugh  elected to roll the dice. On fourth down, Luck’s pass to Jim Dray was broken up and Stanford turned the ball over. A heroic performance by the Cardinal defense limited the damage to a field goal and Stanford started their final drive at their own 42, suddenly things didn’t look too bad. There were two and a half minutes left, a relatively short field, with Luck and Gerhart behind the line.
Luck broke off two runs to bring the ball past midfield. On second down, Luck was forced from the pocket and dumped the ball off to Gerhart, who broke two tackles and rumbled down the sideline, he was only stopped by two Cal defenders on the 13 yard line. It was first down with over a minute and a half remaining. It was time for Toby Gerhart. The first play was an incomplete pass to Coby Fleener in the endzone. No big deal, there are at least three more plays left. On second down, Luck drops back and fires over the field, again towards Fleener. The ball doesn’t make it, Mike Mohamed read Luck like a book and sat on the pass, intercepting the ball on the six yard line. The Bears kneeled three times, and that was that. Cal fans rushed the field.
. 
Almost a minute and a half remaining. On the 13 yard line. Best RB in the nation.  Doesn't touch the ball. 

Of course, Harbs is a genius and Shaw's play calling is inexcusable.  Still the same outcome, though: Cal fans rushing the field.

Night & day difference. In 2009, Luck was a freshman and Toby Gerhart was the best player in college football. In 2011, Luck was the best player in college football and settling for a 40+ yarder is very different then settling for a 30-yarder.

In both cases, the head coach made a stupid decision that cost Stanford the game.