[BostonCard]

Good thoughts CT.  I agree with you on Wilner. I will occasionally read his stuff, especially when he writes about the Pac-12 networks or Pac-12 finances; he has pretty good sources there.  On the other hand, his insight on football is superficial at best, and he is prone to writing stuff that looks a lot like click-bait.  His AP poll votes, in particular, almost seem designed to draw hate-clicks to the site.

On the analysis of coaching changes, the guy who ran it did a bit more of a sophisticated analysis than just compare the results of teams who changed coaches to those who did not.  The blogger characterized the coaching changes based on press reports at the time if he could find them, and whether the assistant made a move up, a lateral move, or moved down.  Though imperfect, a coach whose next destination was less prestigious, was most likely fired.  And of course, because you expect some regression towards the mean in under-performing teams, there was a comparison to what similar teams who didn't fire their coaches did.  The analysis was by no means perfect, and you hit on some obvious flaws, but it is probably safe to say that firing coordinators is not a magic bullet.  Most likely, it is for the reason you stated, that head coaches are not firing their coordinators for a specific reason, but rather because they need to feel like they are doing something.

BC

[BostonCard]

Good thoughts CT.  I agree with you on Wilner. I will occasionally read his stuff, especially when he writes about the Pac-12 networks or Pac-12 finances; he has pretty good sources there.  On the other hand, his insight on football is superficial at best, and he is prone to writing stuff that looks a lot like click-bait.  His AP poll votes, in particular, almost seem designed to draw hate-clicks to the site.

On the analysis of coaching changes, the guy who ran it did a bit more of a sophisticated analysis than just compare the results of teams who changed coaches to those who did not.  The blogger characterized the coaching changes based on press reports at the time if he could find them, and whether the assistant made a move up, a lateral move, or moved down.  Though imperfect, a coach whose next destination was less prestigious, was most likely fired.  And of course, because you expect some regression towards the mean in under-performing teams, there was a comparison to what similar teams who didn't fire their coaches did.  The analysis was by no means perfect, and you hit on some obvious flaws, but it is probably safe to say that firing coordinators is not a magic bullet.  Most likely, it is for the reason you stated, that head coaches are not firing their coordinators for a specific reason, but rather because they need to feel like they are doing something.

BC