[Goose]

The problem with the above analysis is the assumption that fouls are a random variable. They clearly are not. Some teams foul more than others. Some teams foul more in some games and less in others. It depends on a lot of non-random things, like what the defense is trying to play and how the offense is attacking it. Fouls are supposed to be called based on what actually happened. Expecting that fouls should be equally distributed between the two teams clearly makes no sense.

[Goose]

The problem with the above analysis is the assumption that fouls are a random variable. They clearly are not. Some teams foul more than others. Some teams foul more in some games and less in others. It depends on a lot of non-random things, like what the defense is trying to play and how the offense is attacking it. Fouls are supposed to be called based on what actually happened. Expecting that fouls should be equally distributed between the two teams clearly makes no sense.