[DC 86]

But I do think communal gatherings, team sports, and anything that puts many people together should be out.  The larger the group, the larger the probability that at least one person is infected and the larger the number of susceptible individuals who could get infected.  Imagine that 1 in 1000 people are infected with the virus.  If you get together for a round of golf with three friends, the likelihood that one of you is infected is 1 in 250, and at most that person can infect three others.  Now imagine you are involved in a 250 person wedding; the chances that at least one person is infected are 4% or so, and one infection puts 249 others at risk.

If the chances of an individual being infected are 1/1,000 (0.001) then the chances of at least one infected individual in a population of 250 is actually over 22% (1-(.999^250)).

[DC 86]

But I do think communal gatherings, team sports, and anything that puts many people together should be out.  The larger the group, the larger the probability that at least one person is infected and the larger the number of susceptible individuals who could get infected.  Imagine that 1 in 1000 people are infected with the virus.  If you get together for a round of golf with three friends, the likelihood that one of you is infected is 1 in 250, and at most that person can infect three others.  Now imagine you are involved in a 250 person wedding; the chances that at least one person is infected are 4% or so, and one infection puts 249 others at risk.

If the chances of an individual being infected are 1/1,000 (0.001) then the chances of at least one infected individual in a population of 250 is actually over 22% (1-(.999^250)).