[burger]

I've got a bunch of questions about this curve that we're trying to flatten and wonder what other people's thoughts were.  With all this talk about flattening the curve...which is important just to avoid overwhelming our hospitals (and all the fallout from that), what about the length and tail end of the curve.  How do we know when we've gotten there?  Any predictions on what that would look like and how long it will take to get there?  Will we be under strict socializing rules until the curve is done?

It seems that the end of the curve is when the virus basically dies out right?  By dies out, I just mean, it at worst has a very very low infection rate.

One way for it to die out is if we develop a vaccine.  But that will take at least a year.  That's a long curve.
Another way is if we develop herd immunity.  But that means that all the elderly we're trying to save...will still be hit...unless we try to pull off the UK's initial plan of quarantining the elderly until herd immunity is reached.  
Alternately, maybe hitting summer will help (though that seems less and less likely with all the current warm nations being affected)

Seems like we're going to be in a delicate balance for a while.   Let's say we are able to get the infection rate under control through the social restrictions...can we afford to relax those restrictions?  All it would take would be for another few large gathering to once again have an infected person and another explosion of infections would follow.  Would that mean that barring a vaccine or warm weather effect, most of us should expect to get it over the coming months?

Yuck.  Hopefully someone can poke holes in my ponderings.  Thanks

I don't think anyone knows how long it will take for this to peter out.  The models give estimates, but I would be leery of any model predictions, as the model will be less and less accurate the farther you go into the future. 

As for relaxing restrictions, I've seen (can't recall where) models showing that relaxing restrictions leads to a second big spike in infections.  If there are a few infectious people and we relax social distancing, then it just starts over again.

The good news is that there is an alternative strategy: do a ton of testing and hunt down the infected.  South Korea has done this to great effect.  Unfortunately, the federal government initially fucked up the testing so badly that this was impossible in the US.  But, say a few months from now, when testing capacity is much greater, we could conceivably use the testing strategy and use more moderate social distancing.

[burger]

I've got a bunch of questions about this curve that we're trying to flatten and wonder what other people's thoughts were.  With all this talk about flattening the curve...which is important just to avoid overwhelming our hospitals (and all the fallout from that), what about the length and tail end of the curve.  How do we know when we've gotten there?  Any predictions on what that would look like and how long it will take to get there?  Will we be under strict socializing rules until the curve is done?

It seems that the end of the curve is when the virus basically dies out right?  By dies out, I just mean, it at worst has a very very low infection rate.

One way for it to die out is if we develop a vaccine.  But that will take at least a year.  That's a long curve.
Another way is if we develop herd immunity.  But that means that all the elderly we're trying to save...will still be hit...unless we try to pull off the UK's initial plan of quarantining the elderly until herd immunity is reached.  
Alternately, maybe hitting summer will help (though that seems less and less likely with all the current warm nations being affected)

Seems like we're going to be in a delicate balance for a while.   Let's say we are able to get the infection rate under control through the social restrictions...can we afford to relax those restrictions?  All it would take would be for another few large gathering to once again have an infected person and another explosion of infections would follow.  Would that mean that barring a vaccine or warm weather effect, most of us should expect to get it over the coming months?

Yuck.  Hopefully someone can poke holes in my ponderings.  Thanks

I don't think anyone knows how long it will take for this to peter out.  The models give estimates, but I would be leery of any model predictions, as the model will be less and less accurate the farther you go into the future. 

As for relaxing restrictions, I've seen (can't recall where) models showing that relaxing restrictions leads to a second big spike in infections.  If there are a few infectious people and we relax social distancing, then it just starts over again.

The good news is that there is an alternative strategy: do a ton of testing and hunt down the infected.  South Korea has done this to great effect.  Unfortunately, the federal government initially fucked up the testing so badly that this was impossible in the US.  But, say a few months from now, when testing capacity is much greater, we could conceivably use the testing strategy and use more moderate social distancing.