[CardinalSagehen]

Daily new cases in Italy seem to have reached a plateau over the last 4 days at ~3,500/day. This means the doubling time is slowing down. One might doubt the country's capacity to test, but sadly, the count of the deceased is indisputable.  And that number has also reached a plateau at ~350/day for three days running. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/italy/ (scroll to bottom for today's stats, not included in the charts)

You could discount the Italian experience, as it's not yet a trend.  But it looks like the beginning of a trend toward the experience of other countries that have corralled the virus, like S. Korea and China.  This suggests to me that 4-5 weeks of draconian countermeasures, plus testing, might be enough to turn the tide.  If only we had better testing...  

[CardinalSagehen]

Daily new cases in Italy seem to have reached a plateau over the last 4 days at ~3,500/day. This means the doubling time is slowing down. One might doubt the country's capacity to test, but sadly, the count of the deceased is indisputable.  And that number has also reached a plateau at ~350/day for three days running. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...try/italy/ (scroll to bottom for today's stats, not included in the charts)

You could discount the Italian experience, as it's not yet a trend.  But it looks like the beginning of a trend toward the experience of other countries that have corralled the virus, like S. Korea and China.  This suggests to me that 4-5 weeks of draconian countermeasures, plus testing, might be enough to turn the tide.  If only we had better testing...