[Goose]

Singapore has done a masterful job of contact tracing. Even a month ago there were reports posted on their newspaper website identifying that same data on the website BC linked. It was remarkable and underscores just how primitive by comparison our news organizations have been.

It is not our "news organizations" that are primitive, if you are referring to TV and newspapers. What is lacking in our case is the information to be printed. The Singapore (and Korean) public health services generated this information, not the news organizations. Our public health services have been and AFAIK still are unable to do anything similar, even in areas of the country with few cases. In Korea the public health organizations used the news media to assist them in contact tracing by publishing things similar to "anybody who was at such and such a party please visit the public health office ASAP".

I am sure HIPPA issues do prevent as much disclosure in the press as is possible in Singapore. However, I am also sure that the Santa Clara Health Officer has stated that she has very limited capability to do contact tracing and monitoring. I have every reason to believe the rest of the counties in the state are in the same or worse condition. The State of California hasn't said much about their capability, but I would guess it isn't awesome either. At one time the USPHS had a very strong capability to do this type of thing. It wouldn't have been able to cover a nationwide outbreak, but it did a good job on "moderate" sized outbreaks. It also maintained hospitals across the country for use in containing epidemics. Most if not all those hospitals are gone, either closed or given to local jurisdictions. Many (mostly southern) states also had a capability because they were subject to small outbreaks of various types of diseases. I think those capabilities went away when the diseases they targeted essentially were eliminated by drugs or vector controls.

I am concerned that I don't see a mad rush to figure out how to augment the capabilities of these organizations. The "shelter in place" is buying us some time and hopefully reducing the new case load to a "manageable" number for contact tracing and quarantine to work. However, if that manageable number in Santa Clara County is 10 cases or so, it may not be reachable. I am not saying that it will be easy to augment our current capabilities, but if we do not it could be a very long "shelter in place", probably too long to be politically sustainable.

[Goose]

Singapore has done a masterful job of contact tracing. Even a month ago there were reports posted on their newspaper website identifying that same data on the website BC linked. It was remarkable and underscores just how primitive by comparison our news organizations have been.

It is not our "news organizations" that are primitive, if you are referring to TV and newspapers. What is lacking in our case is the information to be printed. The Singapore (and Korean) public health services generated this information, not the news organizations. Our public health services have been and AFAIK still are unable to do anything similar, even in areas of the country with few cases. In Korea the public health organizations used the news media to assist them in contact tracing by publishing things similar to "anybody who was at such and such a party please visit the public health office ASAP".

I am sure HIPPA issues do prevent as much disclosure in the press as is possible in Singapore. However, I am also sure that the Santa Clara Health Officer has stated that she has very limited capability to do contact tracing and monitoring. I have every reason to believe the rest of the counties in the state are in the same or worse condition. The State of California hasn't said much about their capability, but I would guess it isn't awesome either. At one time the USPHS had a very strong capability to do this type of thing. It wouldn't have been able to cover a nationwide outbreak, but it did a good job on "moderate" sized outbreaks. It also maintained hospitals across the country for use in containing epidemics. Most if not all those hospitals are gone, either closed or given to local jurisdictions. Many (mostly southern) states also had a capability because they were subject to small outbreaks of various types of diseases. I think those capabilities went away when the diseases they targeted essentially were eliminated by drugs or vector controls.

I am concerned that I don't see a mad rush to figure out how to augment the capabilities of these organizations. The "shelter in place" is buying us some time and hopefully reducing the new case load to a "manageable" number for contact tracing and quarantine to work. However, if that manageable number in Santa Clara County is 10 cases or so, it may not be reachable. I am not saying that it will be easy to augment our current capabilities, but if we do not it could be a very long "shelter in place", probably too long to be politically sustainable.