04-14-2020, 10:09 AM
(04-14-2020, 09:13 AM)magnus Wrote: New article from NYTimes mentioning four ways to prevent a second wave.
https://www.nytimes.com./2020/04/14/upsh...g-big.html
1) maximum testing. Test 7% of population every day -> test whole population every 2 weeks
2) monitor/ contact trace via phone.
3) community level surveillance by using medical records and other data to alert of outbreaks. And more frequent checks like everpresent thermometers
4) scaling up Singapore's contact tracing
I don't think you need to test 7% of the population every day (that's 21 million people). What you really want to be doing is surveillance, not exhaustive testing. So what that means is:
1) Testing everyone with symptoms
2) Testing contacts of those who are positive
3) Testing a randomish sample of otherwise healthy people
4) Use the results of the above three to guide the density of asymptomatic testing, with more testing in hotspots and less testing in counties where there are few positives
Your goal isn't to exhaustively identify every single case, but to find the new hotspots quickly and tamp down on the infections before they become outbreaks.
BC
