[Snorlax94]

I too have grown more optimistic.  My outlook has brightened considerably over the last week.  I can't cite any single piece of evidence that has made me more optimistic than before, but it's been an accumulation of little things that make me think that everything may turn out not as bad as the worst-case scenarios.

BC

I would say I’m a little more optimistic than I was a week ago.
[+] cases have flattened in many places in the US
[+] some states in the US have gotten their act together and are making progress on many fronts (ppe, testing), especially CA
[+] san mateo pho believes we’ve found only a small % of the cases, which, if true, means the cfr is much lower than we feared, and we may be able to achieve herd immunity faster and with fewer deaths than we feared
[+] made it a week without a major meltdown

[-] still no evidence I have heard that, outside of Mass, we are increasing the tracing and quarantine enforcement capabilities to needed levels in CA, USA
[-] Ro in the Bay Area still too high even in lockdown. Still many new cases daily even 4 weeks into the Lockdown, Stanford study shows 50% of young people self-report they aren’t complying. If people keep violating the SIP, the cases won’t reduce, and it will take longer, and people will get frustrated
[-] Still need at least another 10x in daily tests in CA, it’s been stuck at about 10k tests/day for a little while. For comparison, UW alone can process 3500/day
[-] As expected, less developed countries are starting to explode. The sham that is Russia is becoming exposed — they could be the next Italy. Every time this happens, it will fuel new outbreaks as foreign nationals flee hotspots and return home. Still no good plan in US I have seen for dealing with this — travel bans are too porous, too late, and poorly executed. The mad rush like people returning from Italy and standing in long lines in customs, with no followup quarantining or tracing, could end up making things much worse.

[Snorlax94]

I too have grown more optimistic.  My outlook has brightened considerably over the last week.  I can't cite any single piece of evidence that has made me more optimistic than before, but it's been an accumulation of little things that make me think that everything may turn out not as bad as the worst-case scenarios.

BC

I would say I’m a little more optimistic than I was a week ago.
[+] cases have flattened in many places in the US
[+] some states in the US have gotten their act together and are making progress on many fronts (ppe, testing), especially CA
[+] san mateo pho believes we’ve found only a small % of the cases, which, if true, means the cfr is much lower than we feared, and we may be able to achieve herd immunity faster and with fewer deaths than we feared
[+] made it a week without a major meltdown

[-] still no evidence I have heard that, outside of Mass, we are increasing the tracing and quarantine enforcement capabilities to needed levels in CA, USA
[-] Ro in the Bay Area still too high even in lockdown. Still many new cases daily even 4 weeks into the Lockdown, Stanford study shows 50% of young people self-report they aren’t complying. If people keep violating the SIP, the cases won’t reduce, and it will take longer, and people will get frustrated
[-] Still need at least another 10x in daily tests in CA, it’s been stuck at about 10k tests/day for a little while. For comparison, UW alone can process 3500/day
[-] As expected, less developed countries are starting to explode. The sham that is Russia is becoming exposed — they could be the next Italy. Every time this happens, it will fuel new outbreaks as foreign nationals flee hotspots and return home. Still no good plan in US I have seen for dealing with this — travel bans are too porous, too late, and poorly executed. The mad rush like people returning from Italy and standing in long lines in customs, with no followup quarantining or tracing, could end up making things much worse.