[dabigv13]

Of course you would know this better than me, but my read of the Santa Clara County dashboard (https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/Disease...board.aspx) is showing a steady state of about 1/3rd of ICU beds available. I realize this is with non-essential procedures deferred, and that's not enough to handle a surge, but how many would you ideally want to be open?

I'm surprised that there are significantly more noncovid patients in ICU than covid in SCC, but I have not really been looking at these numbers before. 

Where I am, the great majority are covid with only a few noncovid. I dont know if there is a percentage free you'd want to see. To have 1/3 free ICU beds would be a typical winter type of situation for us in the pre-covid era.

I've been saying you want pretty much zero community transmission before opening because that will buy you a couple weeks before exponential rise can swamp you. Trying to reopen while you still have fair numbera of incoming covid patients means significant community transmission and a much shorter ramp up time before catastrophe like Northern Italy or NYC if you relax.

Please take a look at http://depts.washington.edu/labmed/covid19/ On no day has UW accomplished 3500 tests. They have reached over 3000 once. The average is more like 1600 per day or so. It may well be they are capable 3500 a day and are just not being asked to do so. It is for sure true that early on in this epidemic UW claimed rates per day that in fact they could not (and did not) sustain. I don't know if testing capability in California is a problem for contact tracing. It may be as low as it is because of demand, not supply. The bar to getting a test is still pretty high. I am pretty sure that the Abbott Labs tests (or something similar) will need to be available to the county health workers to make timely contact tracing possible. Failing that, the 2 day wait (average) for results will be a problem, no matter how available the test may be.

I am guessing UW has processing capability that is much higher than they are actually doing because of limits on number of swabs. We have two Abbot machines in our hospital that should each be able to do about a hundred tests a day I think, but we can only run 20 max beteeen them because of swab limits at this time.

[dabigv13]

Of course you would know this better than me, but my read of the Santa Clara County dashboard (https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/Disease...board.aspx) is showing a steady state of about 1/3rd of ICU beds available. I realize this is with non-essential procedures deferred, and that's not enough to handle a surge, but how many would you ideally want to be open?

I'm surprised that there are significantly more noncovid patients in ICU than covid in SCC, but I have not really been looking at these numbers before. 

Where I am, the great majority are covid with only a few noncovid. I dont know if there is a percentage free you'd want to see. To have 1/3 free ICU beds would be a typical winter type of situation for us in the pre-covid era.

I've been saying you want pretty much zero community transmission before opening because that will buy you a couple weeks before exponential rise can swamp you. Trying to reopen while you still have fair numbera of incoming covid patients means significant community transmission and a much shorter ramp up time before catastrophe like Northern Italy or NYC if you relax.

Please take a look at http://depts.washington.edu/labmed/covid19/ On no day has UW accomplished 3500 tests. They have reached over 3000 once. The average is more like 1600 per day or so. It may well be they are capable 3500 a day and are just not being asked to do so. It is for sure true that early on in this epidemic UW claimed rates per day that in fact they could not (and did not) sustain. I don't know if testing capability in California is a problem for contact tracing. It may be as low as it is because of demand, not supply. The bar to getting a test is still pretty high. I am pretty sure that the Abbott Labs tests (or something similar) will need to be available to the county health workers to make timely contact tracing possible. Failing that, the 2 day wait (average) for results will be a problem, no matter how available the test may be.

I am guessing UW has processing capability that is much higher than they are actually doing because of limits on number of swabs. We have two Abbot machines in our hospital that should each be able to do about a hundred tests a day I think, but we can only run 20 max beteeen them because of swab limits at this time.