[M T]

Also, there’s another conflation error here. Just because a professor at the school of medicine has a theory, the title should not imply that opinion somehow reflects an official statement by the school of medicine, or the results of a study.

I hope the multiple is super high — that’ll significantly decrease the odds I die in the next two years, but the multiple is whatever it is. And actual data should start coming in any day now.

I will say that just because someone proposes a theory that turns out wrong, doesn't necessarily mean that the theory is dumb.  All (perhaps only almost all) theories should be heard out.  This MD+economist certainly deserved that.  IMO, what he (& WSJ & the vlog & CNN) missed would be the cost (in lives) of waiting for his study to be done before acting.  The study is useful, once it is done.  But the disease doesn't stop to wait for you to run trials.  (Who knows?  Maybe the WSJ coverage of the hypothesized 0.01 fatality rate has helped convince the South Dakota governor to delay issuing a stay at home order.)


I hope the multiple is super low, low enough that we can actually squish the infection rate to near zero with test & trace & quarantine based on exposure.  If it is high you have to hope for herd effects or to be young.   If high, I can't see how I won't be exposed to it if I ever come out of my house.  If I get it and have symptoms, I expect to be in the roughly 15% death rate based on age (once the final numbers are in), and probably more like 30-50% if you factor in two comorbidities.  In a decade, that'll be closer to 100% if some way isn't found to counter the damage the virus does.

P.S.  Everyone here seems to know that the German expert on coronaviruses, Christian Drosten, is wrong when he said on April 9, that he believes that the asymptomatic cases are rare. TWIV-601 37:04  He believes that people are just not recognizing the symptoms.  

By the way, in South Korea, the death rate for 80+ is now at 22%; 70-79 is 9.7%.   Both continue to climb.  (Granted, for all I know, they are just testing in the ICU)

[M T]

Also, there’s another conflation error here. Just because a professor at the school of medicine has a theory, the title should not imply that opinion somehow reflects an official statement by the school of medicine, or the results of a study.

I hope the multiple is super high — that’ll significantly decrease the odds I die in the next two years, but the multiple is whatever it is. And actual data should start coming in any day now.

I will say that just because someone proposes a theory that turns out wrong, doesn't necessarily mean that the theory is dumb.  All (perhaps only almost all) theories should be heard out.  This MD+economist certainly deserved that.  IMO, what he (& WSJ & the vlog & CNN) missed would be the cost (in lives) of waiting for his study to be done before acting.  The study is useful, once it is done.  But the disease doesn't stop to wait for you to run trials.  (Who knows?  Maybe the WSJ coverage of the hypothesized 0.01 fatality rate has helped convince the South Dakota governor to delay issuing a stay at home order.)


I hope the multiple is super low, low enough that we can actually squish the infection rate to near zero with test & trace & quarantine based on exposure.  If it is high you have to hope for herd effects or to be young.   If high, I can't see how I won't be exposed to it if I ever come out of my house.  If I get it and have symptoms, I expect to be in the roughly 15% death rate based on age (once the final numbers are in), and probably more like 30-50% if you factor in two comorbidities.  In a decade, that'll be closer to 100% if some way isn't found to counter the damage the virus does.

P.S.  Everyone here seems to know that the German expert on coronaviruses, Christian Drosten, is wrong when he said on April 9, that he believes that the asymptomatic cases are rare. TWIV-601 37:04  He believes that people are just not recognizing the symptoms.  

By the way, in South Korea, the death rate for 80+ is now at 22%; 70-79 is 9.7%.   Both continue to climb.  (Granted, for all I know, they are just testing in the ICU)