[82lsju]

Economists are predicting 5.462 million more initial jobless claims tomorrow.  Absent of revisions from prior weeks, that takes to 22,342,000 jobs lost in four weeks.  771 jobs lost for every death caused by the coronavirus as of this morning.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...01571.html

Morgan Stanley thinks we'll hit 25 million lost in five weeks.  That would take us to 16% of American jobs lost in five weeks.  It took 1 3/4 years in the Great Depression to lose the same percentage of jobs.

was on a call with a "noted economist", at least he sure thought he was.  He said that typically 50% of jobless claims don't actually make it to unemployment status, they find jobs before they get benefits.  He thought that this time that number would be ~30%.  He also thinks the bounce back in Q3 won't be as strong as some of he current estimates (e.g. Goldman Sachs with -34% Q/Q in Q2 and +19% Q/Q in Q3).   He also suggested looking at GDP by quarter Y/Y changes instead of Q/Q since that's the way most businesses look at their performance, a colleague plotted these up, and while still not a good picture, it is not as bad as the Q/Q changes.

[82lsju]

Economists are predicting 5.462 million more initial jobless claims tomorrow.  Absent of revisions from prior weeks, that takes to 22,342,000 jobs lost in four weeks.  771 jobs lost for every death caused by the coronavirus as of this morning.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...01571.html

Morgan Stanley thinks we'll hit 25 million lost in five weeks.  That would take us to 16% of American jobs lost in five weeks.  It took 1 3/4 years in the Great Depression to lose the same percentage of jobs.

was on a call with a "noted economist", at least he sure thought he was.  He said that typically 50% of jobless claims don't actually make it to unemployment status, they find jobs before they get benefits.  He thought that this time that number would be ~30%.  He also thinks the bounce back in Q3 won't be as strong as some of he current estimates (e.g. Goldman Sachs with -34% Q/Q in Q2 and +19% Q/Q in Q3).   He also suggested looking at GDP by quarter Y/Y changes instead of Q/Q since that's the way most businesses look at their performance, a colleague plotted these up, and while still not a good picture, it is not as bad as the Q/Q changes.