[Mick]

I mean, right now the best we have is educated guesses.  I think things will look bad in Q1 and, especially, in Q2.  Things will probably start to get better once the worst of the pandemic is past us and we feel comfortable with returning to normal life.  In that case, there should be a bounceback in Q3 and Q4, at which point the big question is how much we irreversible damage has been done, which to me is the most important question.

BC

My sense is that we've done a lot of irreversible damage.  I think the "demand" part of the equation has virtually evaporated outside of essential services.  The longer this goes on, the tougher it will be to come back.

IMF: 2009 global GCP contraction was -1/10th of one percent.  2020 will be a 3.0% drop.
Goldman Sachs: 11% GDP contraction Q2 of this year compared with last year, that's the actual quarterly drop, not an annualized figure.  BTW, GS thought unemployment would go to 9% max.  Now they say 15%.  It's actually 17%, if those seeking unemployment don't get rehired.
Bloomberg says worst drop in post-WWII history.

[Mick]

I mean, right now the best we have is educated guesses.  I think things will look bad in Q1 and, especially, in Q2.  Things will probably start to get better once the worst of the pandemic is past us and we feel comfortable with returning to normal life.  In that case, there should be a bounceback in Q3 and Q4, at which point the big question is how much we irreversible damage has been done, which to me is the most important question.

BC

My sense is that we've done a lot of irreversible damage.  I think the "demand" part of the equation has virtually evaporated outside of essential services.  The longer this goes on, the tougher it will be to come back.

IMF: 2009 global GCP contraction was -1/10th of one percent.  2020 will be a 3.0% drop.
Goldman Sachs: 11% GDP contraction Q2 of this year compared with last year, that's the actual quarterly drop, not an annualized figure.  BTW, GS thought unemployment would go to 9% max.  Now they say 15%.  It's actually 17%, if those seeking unemployment don't get rehired.
Bloomberg says worst drop in post-WWII history.