04-17-2020, 01:41 PM
By the way, with 80 deaths in Santa Clara to date, that suggests an infection fatality rate of 0.1 to 0.2%, though it might end up being higher because not all the people infected around the time of the study who will eventually die have died yet. I would put broad confidence intervals around that, though because of the concerns raised in this thread.
Although the points brought up by folks on this thread are very valid concerns, I do think that this and other evidence should push us to revise our estimates of the IFR downwards. Maybe it won't quite be 0.1%, but it is increasingly unlikely that it is above 1%.
BC
Although the points brought up by folks on this thread are very valid concerns, I do think that this and other evidence should push us to revise our estimates of the IFR downwards. Maybe it won't quite be 0.1%, but it is increasingly unlikely that it is above 1%.
BC