[BostonCard]

One way I think the US is in a uniquely weak position is that a high percentage of the US workforce work in service industries and/or small businesses, both of which will on average be hit harder. Weirdly, I think China’s economy which is more manufacturing-based will be in a stronger position.

Well, they will need people to buy the goods they manufacture.  So not only are they going to have problems with exports, they may have issues with domestic consumption going down as well, particularly discretionary spending.


But I agree with you that Q3 may not be quite so bad as feared.  Yes, it will be way down compared to Q3 2019, but it might be show quarter on quarter growth, especially if orders for sheltering in place start getting lifted and some companies that furloughed their employees start bringing them back.

BC

[BostonCard]

One way I think the US is in a uniquely weak position is that a high percentage of the US workforce work in service industries and/or small businesses, both of which will on average be hit harder. Weirdly, I think China’s economy which is more manufacturing-based will be in a stronger position.

Well, they will need people to buy the goods they manufacture.  So not only are they going to have problems with exports, they may have issues with domestic consumption going down as well, particularly discretionary spending.


But I agree with you that Q3 may not be quite so bad as feared.  Yes, it will be way down compared to Q3 2019, but it might be show quarter on quarter growth, especially if orders for sheltering in place start getting lifted and some companies that furloughed their employees start bringing them back.

BC