[chrisk]

One way I think the US is in a uniquely weak position is that a high percentage of the US workforce work in service industries and/or small businesses, both of which will on average be hit harder. Weirdly, I think China’s economy which is more manufacturing-based will be in a stronger position.

Well, they will need people to buy the goods they manufacture.  So not only are they going to have problems with exports, they may have issues with domestic consumption going down as well, particularly discretionary spending.


But I agree with you that Q3 may not be quite so bad as feared.  Yes, it will be way down compared to Q3 2019, but it might be show quarter on quarter growth, especially if orders for sheltering in place start getting lifted and some companies that furloughed their employees start bringing them back.

BC

The issue, I think, is not so much 'rebound', but reformulation - how fast the service industries can reformulate the manner in which they deliver services. For example, I think we are going to see fewer grocery clerks, and more delivery services. (Self-check out was cutting into clerk's jobs anyway.) How the cinema works I don't know, but I am going to go back to the movies.

How all this works I don't know. But there are a ton of people who want to go out to dinner, and a ton of restaurateurs who want to provide the service. I trust the ingenuity of the American public in these matters.

Landlords will lose restaurants as tenants unless they reduce rents to reflect the new economics of restaurants. Commercial rents took a big dive in the 2007-2009 recession.
Landlords may be wiser to keep a tenant with a 25% rent cut rather than creating a vacancy that will be hard to fill for years.

[chrisk]

One way I think the US is in a uniquely weak position is that a high percentage of the US workforce work in service industries and/or small businesses, both of which will on average be hit harder. Weirdly, I think China’s economy which is more manufacturing-based will be in a stronger position.

Well, they will need people to buy the goods they manufacture.  So not only are they going to have problems with exports, they may have issues with domestic consumption going down as well, particularly discretionary spending.


But I agree with you that Q3 may not be quite so bad as feared.  Yes, it will be way down compared to Q3 2019, but it might be show quarter on quarter growth, especially if orders for sheltering in place start getting lifted and some companies that furloughed their employees start bringing them back.

BC

The issue, I think, is not so much 'rebound', but reformulation - how fast the service industries can reformulate the manner in which they deliver services. For example, I think we are going to see fewer grocery clerks, and more delivery services. (Self-check out was cutting into clerk's jobs anyway.) How the cinema works I don't know, but I am going to go back to the movies.

How all this works I don't know. But there are a ton of people who want to go out to dinner, and a ton of restaurateurs who want to provide the service. I trust the ingenuity of the American public in these matters.

Landlords will lose restaurants as tenants unless they reduce rents to reflect the new economics of restaurants. Commercial rents took a big dive in the 2007-2009 recession.
Landlords may be wiser to keep a tenant with a 25% rent cut rather than creating a vacancy that will be hard to fill for years.