04-18-2020, 10:12 AM
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/don-...d-forecast
Two interesting tidbits (and I don't claim to have any special insight into whether the company's AI based forcast are any better than a WAG, so your mileage may vary):
1) The PTS (probability of technical success) for Moderna's vaccine is low (5%) and its timeline is long 5.2 years. I have a feeling that the AI is extrapolating out of sample in a way that is not relevant, and that in truth vaccine timelines will be much faster than one might predict based on historic data.
2) The PTS for remdisivir is 89%. This strikes me as a bit optimistic for a drug that has not demonstrated efficacy in the disease under study yet.
BC
Two interesting tidbits (and I don't claim to have any special insight into whether the company's AI based forcast are any better than a WAG, so your mileage may vary):
1) The PTS (probability of technical success) for Moderna's vaccine is low (5%) and its timeline is long 5.2 years. I have a feeling that the AI is extrapolating out of sample in a way that is not relevant, and that in truth vaccine timelines will be much faster than one might predict based on historic data.
2) The PTS for remdisivir is 89%. This strikes me as a bit optimistic for a drug that has not demonstrated efficacy in the disease under study yet.
BC