04-20-2020, 03:51 PM
These folks have a calculator that lets you estimate prevalence for a serology test with known sensitivity and specificity. https://larremorelab.github.io/covid-calculator1
When I put in the numbers for the Stanford study, I got 1.1%, which is 60% below what they reported and more in line with earlier studies.
Caveat: this is new and, like everything else lately, based on a preprint, which I haven't looked at yet.
Also, it's from Harvard. I fear the ultimate takeaway from all of this will be "believe what Harvard says, not Stanford."
When I put in the numbers for the Stanford study, I got 1.1%, which is 60% below what they reported and more in line with earlier studies.
Caveat: this is new and, like everything else lately, based on a preprint, which I haven't looked at yet.
Also, it's from Harvard. I fear the ultimate takeaway from all of this will be "believe what Harvard says, not Stanford."
