[burger]

This is a story to keep track of.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus...oronavirus

73% of inmates (1828 in total) in an Ohio prison tested positive for coronavirus, after Ohio decided to test every inmate.

"Because we are testing everyone — including those who are not showing symptoms — we are getting positive test results on individuals who otherwise would have never been tested because they were asymptomatic,"

So far, no deaths.  The breakdown of who is symptomatic and who isn't is provided.  If things stay this way, the 95% confidence interval around the IFR is 0 to 0.2%, and would be consistent with the Stanford and Los Angeles county studies (not adjusting for age and comorbidities in the prison population).  Obviously this would be updated if you started seeing some deaths.  But it will, unfortunately, be an interesting cohort of people to follow, since the testing was done early and it is a different population than the cruise ships.

BC

I would be extremely careful about any extrapolations from this group.  Prison populations must be younger than average for the US, right?*  At the very least, older age groups are probably underrepresented.  So any CFR or IFR is going to be low compared to what you'd get in the US.

*I don't have Ohio data, but for US federal prisons, older age groups are definitely underrepresented.

Edit: found some data. 31% of all Ohio residents are 55+. As of 2010, 14.5% of Ohio prisoners were over 50. And I'll bet that the oldest age groups, that have the highest covid mortality, are the most underrepresented in prisons.

[burger]

This is a story to keep track of.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus...oronavirus

73% of inmates (1828 in total) in an Ohio prison tested positive for coronavirus, after Ohio decided to test every inmate.

"Because we are testing everyone — including those who are not showing symptoms — we are getting positive test results on individuals who otherwise would have never been tested because they were asymptomatic,"

So far, no deaths.  The breakdown of who is symptomatic and who isn't is provided.  If things stay this way, the 95% confidence interval around the IFR is 0 to 0.2%, and would be consistent with the Stanford and Los Angeles county studies (not adjusting for age and comorbidities in the prison population).  Obviously this would be updated if you started seeing some deaths.  But it will, unfortunately, be an interesting cohort of people to follow, since the testing was done early and it is a different population than the cruise ships.

BC

I would be extremely careful about any extrapolations from this group.  Prison populations must be younger than average for the US, right?*  At the very least, older age groups are probably underrepresented.  So any CFR or IFR is going to be low compared to what you'd get in the US.

*I don't have Ohio data, but for US federal prisons, older age groups are definitely underrepresented.

Edit: found some data. 31% of all Ohio residents are 55+. As of 2010, 14.5% of Ohio prisoners were over 50. And I'll bet that the oldest age groups, that have the highest covid mortality, are the most underrepresented in prisons.