[81alum]

Just posting an invite for someone to give an analysis of this shortened season and how and why it may have differed from your projections.

Well, JustAnother, I think the season did turn out close to my "Worst Case Scenario," and it did so for a very simple reason:  Dodson, Carrington, and Jones were injured or held out for most of the season.  If all three of them stay healthy and play for the whole season, I think we would have wound up squarely in between my worst case and best case, probably a little closer to the best case scenario. 

Fingall did not markedly improve over prior seasons, and Dodson (when she finally played) looked inconsistent.  For a game or two she looked like a star, and then for a game or two her offense would disappear.  Nor did Jerome have a break out year.  So our fear going into the season was about the bigs and replacing Smith, and that fear was somewhat borne out.

Also consider that Tara's teams usually play their best at the end of a season, not the beginning.  This makes Stanford quite different from teams which play more instinctive styles.  And of course the end of the season was lopped off, depriving us the chance to see how it all might have turned out.

Of the injuries, the lack of Carrington and Jones made our offense one dimensional at the end--not grossly so--but enough so to give opposing defenses an edge they otherwise would have lacked.  We had no chance against the quick Oregon zone without them.

As far as the development of the freshmen--Jones looked quite good before she was injured but she was not yet dominant.  I think she has more room to grow.  Precthel was the biggest surprise.  She was much more offensive than I expected, but further behind on defense and pretty good but not as dominant as she can probably become with rebounding.  Belibi is indeed a diamond in the rough and still has a  lot to learn.  She could possibly become a dominant player if she really wants to emphasize basketball and grow from year to year.  Jump showed she could be competent on defense against average college players but against some teams with two quick slashing guards she is going to have problems.  So all of last year's freshmen showed us great talent, and all four need to improve quite a bit.  Normally the freshman to sophomore year is where that happens--but Covid might derail all of that.

[81alum]

Just posting an invite for someone to give an analysis of this shortened season and how and why it may have differed from your projections.

Well, JustAnother, I think the season did turn out close to my "Worst Case Scenario," and it did so for a very simple reason:  Dodson, Carrington, and Jones were injured or held out for most of the season.  If all three of them stay healthy and play for the whole season, I think we would have wound up squarely in between my worst case and best case, probably a little closer to the best case scenario. 

Fingall did not markedly improve over prior seasons, and Dodson (when she finally played) looked inconsistent.  For a game or two she looked like a star, and then for a game or two her offense would disappear.  Nor did Jerome have a break out year.  So our fear going into the season was about the bigs and replacing Smith, and that fear was somewhat borne out.

Also consider that Tara's teams usually play their best at the end of a season, not the beginning.  This makes Stanford quite different from teams which play more instinctive styles.  And of course the end of the season was lopped off, depriving us the chance to see how it all might have turned out.

Of the injuries, the lack of Carrington and Jones made our offense one dimensional at the end--not grossly so--but enough so to give opposing defenses an edge they otherwise would have lacked.  We had no chance against the quick Oregon zone without them.

As far as the development of the freshmen--Jones looked quite good before she was injured but she was not yet dominant.  I think she has more room to grow.  Precthel was the biggest surprise.  She was much more offensive than I expected, but further behind on defense and pretty good but not as dominant as she can probably become with rebounding.  Belibi is indeed a diamond in the rough and still has a  lot to learn.  She could possibly become a dominant player if she really wants to emphasize basketball and grow from year to year.  Jump showed she could be competent on defense against average college players but against some teams with two quick slashing guards she is going to have problems.  So all of last year's freshmen showed us great talent, and all four need to improve quite a bit.  Normally the freshman to sophomore year is where that happens--but Covid might derail all of that.