[M T]

ND fell to fourth behind Stanford, at least in the AP poll. (The other isn't out yet)

Isn't it the case that the #2 and #3 overall seeds wouldn't play Baylor (#1) until the Finals?  That would be a very important difference.

The expectation is that ND & UConn have two more games (@UConn 2/27 and then @UConn in the Big East Tourney Championship game 3/6).
Assuming everyone stays healthy on all the teams and assuming Stanford runs the table to the NCAA tournament:

If UConn is 0-3 against ND for the year, I think ND will be #2 and it is a toss-up between UConn and Stanford for #3. 
If ND loses both games against UConn), then UConn will be #2, Stanford #3, ND #4
If UConn & ND split, I expect that Stanford will be #4, but possibly #3 ahead of ND.
If UConn loses to ND & to another opponent, Stanford may be #4, but possibly #3.
If ND loses to UConn & to another opponent, Stanford will be #3.
If both UConn & ND lose to other opponents, it won't matter as the meteor will hit us first.

I think that if Baylor loses two games (very unlikely), they will still be ranked #1

OTOH, if Stanford loses to anyone before the NCAA tourney, the best we will be ranked will be #4.

[M T]

ND fell to fourth behind Stanford, at least in the AP poll. (The other isn't out yet)

Isn't it the case that the #2 and #3 overall seeds wouldn't play Baylor (#1) until the Finals?  That would be a very important difference.

The expectation is that ND & UConn have two more games (@UConn 2/27 and then @UConn in the Big East Tourney Championship game 3/6).
Assuming everyone stays healthy on all the teams and assuming Stanford runs the table to the NCAA tournament:

If UConn is 0-3 against ND for the year, I think ND will be #2 and it is a toss-up between UConn and Stanford for #3. 
If ND loses both games against UConn), then UConn will be #2, Stanford #3, ND #4
If UConn & ND split, I expect that Stanford will be #4, but possibly #3 ahead of ND.
If UConn loses to ND & to another opponent, Stanford may be #4, but possibly #3.
If ND loses to UConn & to another opponent, Stanford will be #3.
If both UConn & ND lose to other opponents, it won't matter as the meteor will hit us first.

I think that if Baylor loses two games (very unlikely), they will still be ranked #1

OTOH, if Stanford loses to anyone before the NCAA tourney, the best we will be ranked will be #4.