02-13-2012, 01:52 PM
The real puzzler this year is the combination of predetermined host sites and a lot of uncertainty below the top 4.
When you look at the host sites, only 3 of the 16 are likely to have top-4 seeds as host: Notre Dame, College Park and College Station
You might get a top-4 seed from West Lafayette (with outside chances from OK, Vandy and Depaul)
But if not, then you have 12 seeded teams having to play neutral site or on the road in the subregional, which I bet is the highest count ever.
There look like 4 or so potential "neutral" sites, where the host is unlikely to qualify: Little Rock, Bridgeport (which essentially has become a bought-and-paid-for cover for UConn), Tallahassee and Norfolk. The latest bracketology on ESPN posits Baylor in Little Rock and UConn in Bridgeport (with a regional in Rhode Island). FSU is the only one who might get hot enough to qualify, but if it does, will likely be in the 11-12 seed category below.
That's the rub: where host teams are likely to be seeded. The problem is a lot of the hosts are either on the bubble (BGSU, Iowa State and North Carolina - who shouldn't even be sniffing the tournament, but I digress) - an 11 or 12 seed - or in the 3-6 seed (Depaul, Oklahoma, Purdue, Vandy) range, meaning they can't be pushed up or down to an 8-9 seed to host a #1. Maybe Vandy.
What will be interesting to watch:
- does the NCAA let in "bubble" or close to bubble host teams to boost attendance: North Carolina, Gonzaga, Iowa State? If so, they'll be 11 or 12 seeds, so we can't be sent there. And I reiterate, North Carolina, with a current RPI of 91, does not deserve a spot in the field. In which case, Chapel Hill becomes a neutral site and a natural host for Duke as a #2 seed, which may send Stanford to Norfolk.
- what is the dominant bracketing consideration - geography? advantage to higher seeds? avoidance of rematches (less likely to be a problem, with no potential #2s in the #1s conferences, like Baylor/TAMU last year)?
All I know is that Selection Monday is going to have a lot of storylines.
VG
When you look at the host sites, only 3 of the 16 are likely to have top-4 seeds as host: Notre Dame, College Park and College Station
You might get a top-4 seed from West Lafayette (with outside chances from OK, Vandy and Depaul)
But if not, then you have 12 seeded teams having to play neutral site or on the road in the subregional, which I bet is the highest count ever.
There look like 4 or so potential "neutral" sites, where the host is unlikely to qualify: Little Rock, Bridgeport (which essentially has become a bought-and-paid-for cover for UConn), Tallahassee and Norfolk. The latest bracketology on ESPN posits Baylor in Little Rock and UConn in Bridgeport (with a regional in Rhode Island). FSU is the only one who might get hot enough to qualify, but if it does, will likely be in the 11-12 seed category below.
That's the rub: where host teams are likely to be seeded. The problem is a lot of the hosts are either on the bubble (BGSU, Iowa State and North Carolina - who shouldn't even be sniffing the tournament, but I digress) - an 11 or 12 seed - or in the 3-6 seed (Depaul, Oklahoma, Purdue, Vandy) range, meaning they can't be pushed up or down to an 8-9 seed to host a #1. Maybe Vandy.
What will be interesting to watch:
- does the NCAA let in "bubble" or close to bubble host teams to boost attendance: North Carolina, Gonzaga, Iowa State? If so, they'll be 11 or 12 seeds, so we can't be sent there. And I reiterate, North Carolina, with a current RPI of 91, does not deserve a spot in the field. In which case, Chapel Hill becomes a neutral site and a natural host for Duke as a #2 seed, which may send Stanford to Norfolk.
- what is the dominant bracketing consideration - geography? advantage to higher seeds? avoidance of rematches (less likely to be a problem, with no potential #2s in the #1s conferences, like Baylor/TAMU last year)?
All I know is that Selection Monday is going to have a lot of storylines.
VG