[Farm93]

I fear some sport and music loving fans hear that China had almost no outdoor transmissions and will then jump to a set of questionable conclusions.

Wuhan in January is not exactly an outdoor paradise.  The weather in December and January is not great.  Chinese urban citizens are not exactly known for their love of outdoor cafes or winter spectator sports.   Oh, and throughout Asia it was understood that there was a dangerous virus lurking in many cities.   

So while Asia had few outdoor transmissions in that sample, I think it would be very dangerous to conclude their experience would mean it will be safe to crowd into an outdoor music festival, socialize in a multi-hour tailgate, or crowd into a football stadium for 3 hours.   

I would rather be at a big outdoor stadium than a crowded meat processing plant, but I don't think the East Asian winter outdoor experience is really transferable to USA summer activities. 

FWIW - I thought the running theory was that Spain and Italy had their initial outbreaks because of a soccer match in Northern Italy.   I am not sure if that tracing was ever investigated more carefully, but that type of Western European sports experience would seem to be far more relevant for USA sports fans.

[Farm93]

I fear some sport and music loving fans hear that China had almost no outdoor transmissions and will then jump to a set of questionable conclusions.

Wuhan in January is not exactly an outdoor paradise.  The weather in December and January is not great.  Chinese urban citizens are not exactly known for their love of outdoor cafes or winter spectator sports.   Oh, and throughout Asia it was understood that there was a dangerous virus lurking in many cities.   

So while Asia had few outdoor transmissions in that sample, I think it would be very dangerous to conclude their experience would mean it will be safe to crowd into an outdoor music festival, socialize in a multi-hour tailgate, or crowd into a football stadium for 3 hours.   

I would rather be at a big outdoor stadium than a crowded meat processing plant, but I don't think the East Asian winter outdoor experience is really transferable to USA summer activities. 

FWIW - I thought the running theory was that Spain and Italy had their initial outbreaks because of a soccer match in Northern Italy.   I am not sure if that tracing was ever investigated more carefully, but that type of Western European sports experience would seem to be far more relevant for USA sports fans.