05-11-2020, 12:17 PM
NYC publishes cases, hospitalization, and deaths for demographic information "per 100K". I've determined that, for instance, for 0-17 year olds, the "per 100K" refers to per 100K of 0-17 year olds. So from that, I generated approximate case counts (to make sure I had the interpretation right) from 2016 demographics.
I note that the incidence of cases is a little higher in 75+, but lower to much lower in the younger age group. This suggests to me that we may be seeing under-counting in the younger age group (possibly asymptomatic or nearly asymptomatic).
REMEMBER: Due to (about a 3-week) latency in deaths, relative to cases, deaths are under-represented here. The death percentages will go up (maybe by a factor of 2). Hospitalizations will also go up.
Nearly 10% of the cases in 18-44 require hospitalization (but only 1% die).
Nearly a quarter of the cases in 45-64 require hospitalization and 5% die. (This is close to the overall China numbers of 80% mild, 20% severe, 5% death)
Not quite half of the 65-74 cases require hospitalization. One sixth have already died.
More than 60% of the 75+ cases require hospitalization. More than one third have already died.
I note that the incidence of cases is a little higher in 75+, but lower to much lower in the younger age group. This suggests to me that we may be seeing under-counting in the younger age group (possibly asymptomatic or nearly asymptomatic).
REMEMBER: Due to (about a 3-week) latency in deaths, relative to cases, deaths are under-represented here. The death percentages will go up (maybe by a factor of 2). Hospitalizations will also go up.
Nearly 10% of the cases in 18-44 require hospitalization (but only 1% die).
Nearly a quarter of the cases in 45-64 require hospitalization and 5% die. (This is close to the overall China numbers of 80% mild, 20% severe, 5% death)
Not quite half of the 65-74 cases require hospitalization. One sixth have already died.
More than 60% of the 75+ cases require hospitalization. More than one third have already died.
| per 100K | approx count | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age group | Cases | Hosp. | Deaths | Cases | Hosp. | Deaths |
| 0-17 | 258.21 | 18.82 | 0 | 4640 | 338 | 0 |
| 18-44 | 1948.1 | 189.01 | 17.3 | 67870 | 6585 | 603 |
| 45-64 | 3188 | 746.92 | 161.28 | 66998 | 15697 | 3389 |
| 65-74 | 3184 | 1454.83 | 524.09 | 20841 | 9523 | 3430 |
| 75+ | 3748.6 | 2301.02 | 1312.67 | 18763 | 11517 | 6570 |
| Total | 2128.5 | 533.56 | 175.66 | 179112 | 43660 | 13993 |
