[stupac2]

I'm seeing this argument a lot, and I think it's wrong, or at least partly wrong.  After things open up, I'm sure there will be some voluntary social distancing, maybe even quite a lot.  But it's wrong to assume that voluntary social distancing will happen in May or June like it hapened in March.  And even more wrong to assume that about July or August or September.



In March this was all new and scary, and people were not yet sick of staying in their houses.  Now, people are already starting to go out more, even in states that haven't opened up.  As this drags on, people are going to be less and less likely to stay home.  People will normalize the risk of getting ill or dying, and grow increasingly bored of sitting at home.  So, I think we'll see less and less social distancing over time.



This is one of the reasons why I am not optimistic about this being under control until we get a vaccine.  People just won't sit home forever.

In the early going I saw a lot of people compare this to car deaths, and I think that's instructive. Every year we have 10 9/11's on our roads, plus who knows how much injury, and the deaths from pollution and all the other crap associated with cars, and no one cares. Virtually no one thinks it matters at all, let alone would be willing to inconvenience themselves at all to stop what is objectively a ridiculous death toll.

I think the ability of humanity to become accustomed to their circumstances is one of the worst curses imaginable, even if it's understandable from an evolutionary perspective.

[stupac2]

I'm seeing this argument a lot, and I think it's wrong, or at least partly wrong.  After things open up, I'm sure there will be some voluntary social distancing, maybe even quite a lot.  But it's wrong to assume that voluntary social distancing will happen in May or June like it hapened in March.  And even more wrong to assume that about July or August or September.



In March this was all new and scary, and people were not yet sick of staying in their houses.  Now, people are already starting to go out more, even in states that haven't opened up.  As this drags on, people are going to be less and less likely to stay home.  People will normalize the risk of getting ill or dying, and grow increasingly bored of sitting at home.  So, I think we'll see less and less social distancing over time.



This is one of the reasons why I am not optimistic about this being under control until we get a vaccine.  People just won't sit home forever.

In the early going I saw a lot of people compare this to car deaths, and I think that's instructive. Every year we have 10 9/11's on our roads, plus who knows how much injury, and the deaths from pollution and all the other crap associated with cars, and no one cares. Virtually no one thinks it matters at all, let alone would be willing to inconvenience themselves at all to stop what is objectively a ridiculous death toll.

I think the ability of humanity to become accustomed to their circumstances is one of the worst curses imaginable, even if it's understandable from an evolutionary perspective.