[Genuine Realist]

This is interesting. It appears - as seems to be the case on this board - that even if governments don't shut things down, we citizens are deciding to follow NPIs on our own. So we could see falling or at least plateaued case and death numbers even after states open things back up.

Florida's behavior, the dead cat bounce that is Georgia's re-opening, combined with the first week of March Open Table data, and the public polling done, is evidence that even if government restrictions are lifted people aren't going out at anything approaching pre-pandemic levels.  It really is like seeing 20% of the economy drying up because people don't want to get sick. Of course, if even 5% of people go out and party like it's 1999, it could be disastrous.

I'm seeing this argument a lot, and I think it's wrong, or at least partly wrong.  After things open up, I'm sure there will be some voluntary social distancing, maybe even quite a lot.  But it's wrong to assume that voluntary social distancing will happen in May or June like it hapened in March.  And even more wrong to assume that about July or August or September.

In March this was all new and scary, and people were not yet sick of staying in their houses.  Now, people are already starting to go out more, even in states that haven't opened up.  As this drags on, people are going to be less and less likely to stay home.  People will normalize the risk of getting ill or dying, and grow increasingly bored of sitting at home.  So, I think we'll see less and less social distancing over time.

This is one of the reasons why I am not optimistic about this being under control until we get a vaccine.  People just won't sit home forever.

It's not a question of 'won't stay home'. It's a question of 'can't stay home'.

Sooner or later, we're going to have to trust each other. i'm a pretty committed Populist, in the older Lincolnian sense, so the sooner or better. To be sure, this will NOT lead to the optimum medical situation. But that's not the only consideration - there are other evils, economic, but possibly more devastating. My sense is that society will come to its own balance, not perfect, but probably optimum in a practical sense.

[Genuine Realist]

This is interesting. It appears - as seems to be the case on this board - that even if governments don't shut things down, we citizens are deciding to follow NPIs on our own. So we could see falling or at least plateaued case and death numbers even after states open things back up.

Florida's behavior, the dead cat bounce that is Georgia's re-opening, combined with the first week of March Open Table data, and the public polling done, is evidence that even if government restrictions are lifted people aren't going out at anything approaching pre-pandemic levels.  It really is like seeing 20% of the economy drying up because people don't want to get sick. Of course, if even 5% of people go out and party like it's 1999, it could be disastrous.

I'm seeing this argument a lot, and I think it's wrong, or at least partly wrong.  After things open up, I'm sure there will be some voluntary social distancing, maybe even quite a lot.  But it's wrong to assume that voluntary social distancing will happen in May or June like it hapened in March.  And even more wrong to assume that about July or August or September.

In March this was all new and scary, and people were not yet sick of staying in their houses.  Now, people are already starting to go out more, even in states that haven't opened up.  As this drags on, people are going to be less and less likely to stay home.  People will normalize the risk of getting ill or dying, and grow increasingly bored of sitting at home.  So, I think we'll see less and less social distancing over time.

This is one of the reasons why I am not optimistic about this being under control until we get a vaccine.  People just won't sit home forever.

It's not a question of 'won't stay home'. It's a question of 'can't stay home'.

Sooner or later, we're going to have to trust each other. i'm a pretty committed Populist, in the older Lincolnian sense, so the sooner or better. To be sure, this will NOT lead to the optimum medical situation. But that's not the only consideration - there are other evils, economic, but possibly more devastating. My sense is that society will come to its own balance, not perfect, but probably optimum in a practical sense.