[Genuine Realist]

When the history of these strange times is written, I think we'll find out that what happened is a critical mass of clinical and epidemiological experience coalesced around the first week of March. You can lament February, if you believe in precognition.

It doesn't require "precognition" to "lament February." There were many warning signs during January and February that should have caused the administration to take action to prepare for the coronavirus. I'm not saying it was feasible to adopt "shelter in place" in January. But there were other steps that the administration could have taken that would have been helpful. Boston Card has made several posts on this topic over the last several weeks. I'm copying one of BC's posts here:


Lots of steps that Trump could have taken to either increase public support or take steps that the public would have been behind.

1) Stop making it worse by minimizing the significance of the virus and saying it will go away on its own, even as the cases and deaths were piling up.
2) Start socializing the potential of the virus to be very serious.
3) Put in place executive orders to cut through the red tape at FDA and CDC to roll out testing and enable expanded access to medications.
4) Develop a COVID response team that would determine what needs healthcare teams will have.  Identify PPE and ventilators as your weak link before health systems are overwhelmed and centralize purchase and distribution.
5) Develop guidelines for states to implement escalating social distancing orders.  The administration did a decent job in writing the guidelines for reopening; it could have provided states with guidelines on when to impose various restrictions.  That doesn't mean you impose them immediately, but rather you get the states ready to impose them.  Remember, a one day delay results in a ~40% increase in cases in a wave, so if you can get states to move forward their restrictions by a day or two, that makes a significant difference in the end.
6) Expand local health authorities capability to do case tracking.  The CDC announced 600 additional staff today.  It could have pushed this two months ago!
7) Talk to business leaders to socialize them to the possible need of having employees work from home.  For whatever my complaints about Trump are, he is good at talking to business leaders.  Even just "make contingency plans to have your employees work from home" would have been helpful.
8) Work with states to get them ready.
9) Start negotiations with congress to get important pieces of legislation together early.  You don't have to pass them, but if you have the outlines of legislation already negotiated and ready to deploy if the proverbial crap hits the fan.
10) Most importantly, the President is supposed to be a leader; lead for frick's sake.  Tell people things they might not want to hear, but that if they hear could save their lives.  Tell people to be ready for the worst, but remind them that we are all in this together, and that if things start to take a turn worse, we will all work together.

---

Instead of doing the things on Boston Card's list, Trump spent January and February in denial. That time could have been used to protect lives and to protect the economy. Instead the time was wasted. That's why we should "lament February."

Terry,
With all due respect, you have missed the point completely.

Trump didn't do much in January and February (although what little he did was sharply criticized). 

But neither did anyone else - anywhere in the Western would. This isn't a case where there were iceberg warnings all around, that others heeded, and this ship sailed on. No one heeded them - and, if you look at WHO pronouncements, there wasn't much in the way of warnings.

When everyone behaves in pretty much the same way, including personages of distinguished competence, it's a pretty good bet that the gating factor was available information.

That's the point.

[Genuine Realist]

When the history of these strange times is written, I think we'll find out that what happened is a critical mass of clinical and epidemiological experience coalesced around the first week of March. You can lament February, if you believe in precognition.

It doesn't require "precognition" to "lament February." There were many warning signs during January and February that should have caused the administration to take action to prepare for the coronavirus. I'm not saying it was feasible to adopt "shelter in place" in January. But there were other steps that the administration could have taken that would have been helpful. Boston Card has made several posts on this topic over the last several weeks. I'm copying one of BC's posts here:


Lots of steps that Trump could have taken to either increase public support or take steps that the public would have been behind.

1) Stop making it worse by minimizing the significance of the virus and saying it will go away on its own, even as the cases and deaths were piling up.
2) Start socializing the potential of the virus to be very serious.
3) Put in place executive orders to cut through the red tape at FDA and CDC to roll out testing and enable expanded access to medications.
4) Develop a COVID response team that would determine what needs healthcare teams will have.  Identify PPE and ventilators as your weak link before health systems are overwhelmed and centralize purchase and distribution.
5) Develop guidelines for states to implement escalating social distancing orders.  The administration did a decent job in writing the guidelines for reopening; it could have provided states with guidelines on when to impose various restrictions.  That doesn't mean you impose them immediately, but rather you get the states ready to impose them.  Remember, a one day delay results in a ~40% increase in cases in a wave, so if you can get states to move forward their restrictions by a day or two, that makes a significant difference in the end.
6) Expand local health authorities capability to do case tracking.  The CDC announced 600 additional staff today.  It could have pushed this two months ago!
7) Talk to business leaders to socialize them to the possible need of having employees work from home.  For whatever my complaints about Trump are, he is good at talking to business leaders.  Even just "make contingency plans to have your employees work from home" would have been helpful.
8) Work with states to get them ready.
9) Start negotiations with congress to get important pieces of legislation together early.  You don't have to pass them, but if you have the outlines of legislation already negotiated and ready to deploy if the proverbial crap hits the fan.
10) Most importantly, the President is supposed to be a leader; lead for frick's sake.  Tell people things they might not want to hear, but that if they hear could save their lives.  Tell people to be ready for the worst, but remind them that we are all in this together, and that if things start to take a turn worse, we will all work together.

---

Instead of doing the things on Boston Card's list, Trump spent January and February in denial. That time could have been used to protect lives and to protect the economy. Instead the time was wasted. That's why we should "lament February."

Terry,
With all due respect, you have missed the point completely.

Trump didn't do much in January and February (although what little he did was sharply criticized). 

But neither did anyone else - anywhere in the Western would. This isn't a case where there were iceberg warnings all around, that others heeded, and this ship sailed on. No one heeded them - and, if you look at WHO pronouncements, there wasn't much in the way of warnings.

When everyone behaves in pretty much the same way, including personages of distinguished competence, it's a pretty good bet that the gating factor was available information.

That's the point.