06-22-2020, 10:33 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-22-2020, 03:52 PM by BostonCard.)
(06-22-2020, 10:13 AM)Farm93 Wrote:(06-22-2020, 08:00 AM)Genuine Realist Wrote: A post-election coup in the US is an absolutely zero probability.In politics nothing has an absolutely zero probability.
For example, Gerald Ford becoming President in August 1974 must have seemed impossible in October 1972.
Things happen.
I would not put the number at zero, but would agree it is close enough to zero that there are more pressing concerns in the USA at the moment.
I agree with you that there are no absolute zeros. That being said, I think tehre's a difference between something being unlikely because a number of unlikely possibilities would have had to happen (Nixon being engulfed in scandal, Spiro Agnew resigning, Ford being picked as VP, Nixon being impeached) and thinking of scenarios where there are built in forces in opposition. It might have seemed unlikely in 1972, but you can connect the dots (or put another way, if I could go back in time and tell someone that in two years Gerald Ford will be president, they could probably come up with a plausible scenario that makes it so).
If someone from the future came and told me that there was a coup after the election, I would honestly dumbfounded as how it could have come to pass. Maybe that's failure in my imagination, or overconfidence in American institutions, but I really have a hard time seeing it.
BC
