[Goose]

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

Indeed it would. I do not expect that to happen, but it would be great if it did. However, since the place where the rubber will meet the road is at the County and State level, that is where I think the focus of concern should be. You and I both agree (I think) that the State of California opened up way too early. If we are to reverse that and have SIP 2.0 one has to believe that a)Newsom will issue such an order, b) It will be complied with adequately and/or enforced adequately, and c) the above will result in a low enough case load that California will reopen successfully. I personally believe a is possible. Newsom might issue such an order. I question seriously whether b is possible. I don't think Newsom or the Counties have any plans to enforce anything. They will rely mostly on voluntary compliance. Unless a much better sell job with a plausible end game is presented to the public, they won't get that compliance, IMHO.

Even if they do a good sell job, I believe that the odds will be heavily against them. The attitude will be "Did that, didn't work, not going to do it again". That is why I believe contact tracing and tracking with the associated teeth is the only hope. It doesn't require perfect compliance until/unless you get COVID-19. Then forcing people who are positive and their contacts to comply would only affect less than 1% of the population. That may be politically feasible. Yes, everybody else would need social distancing and masks, but not full SIP. That possibly could be made to work. SIP 2.0, I don't think can.

[Goose]

The current economic health of Sweden, Brazil and Mexico suggests we are in a very bad group, and it would be awesome if POTUS worked a bit harder to get all of us to crush the cause (the pandemic) rather than wait for a miracle, a vaccine, and/or a new POTUS.

Indeed it would. I do not expect that to happen, but it would be great if it did. However, since the place where the rubber will meet the road is at the County and State level, that is where I think the focus of concern should be. You and I both agree (I think) that the State of California opened up way too early. If we are to reverse that and have SIP 2.0 one has to believe that a)Newsom will issue such an order, b) It will be complied with adequately and/or enforced adequately, and c) the above will result in a low enough case load that California will reopen successfully. I personally believe a is possible. Newsom might issue such an order. I question seriously whether b is possible. I don't think Newsom or the Counties have any plans to enforce anything. They will rely mostly on voluntary compliance. Unless a much better sell job with a plausible end game is presented to the public, they won't get that compliance, IMHO.

Even if they do a good sell job, I believe that the odds will be heavily against them. The attitude will be "Did that, didn't work, not going to do it again". That is why I believe contact tracing and tracking with the associated teeth is the only hope. It doesn't require perfect compliance until/unless you get COVID-19. Then forcing people who are positive and their contacts to comply would only affect less than 1% of the population. That may be politically feasible. Yes, everybody else would need social distancing and masks, but not full SIP. That possibly could be made to work. SIP 2.0, I don't think can.