07-23-2020, 06:23 AM
(07-22-2020, 11:19 PM)allrightynow Wrote:(07-22-2020, 02:05 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Right now, the only national source of cases, testing, deaths, hospitalizations and ICU beds data, that gives apples/apples view is http://covidusa.net by Johns Hopkins. But it still doesn't go in great depth and is not a government sanctioned data source. The Santa Clara County data is the best I've seen from any government agency in the U.S. That doesn't mean there aren't better ones, but I haven't seen any.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think covidusa.net actually tracks any hospitalization or ICU beds data, it only does a rough estimate based on an assumed percentage of new cases and is pretty much way off of actual reported numbers. The best "national" site I've found is https://covidtracking.com/data/charts which tracks what you list except for ICU beds data.
I don't know for sure, but I haven't ever really put much stock in Covidusa.net's hospital numbers, especially because the percentages never seemed believable to me. I really only follow the case numbers, deaths, test positivity rates and projections on that site. I've even started a table that records the 7/14/30 day predictions to see if they line up with reality when those days arrive.
The 7-day case numbers projected last Friday appear to be right in line with what is actually going to be reported. Deaths seem to be much more difficult to project accurately. Last Friday's 7-day death projection was 160k by 7/24. That's a lot to be off by, but it's also possible the death numbers aren't being accurately reported. I mean it's hard to believe that after this much data, the projections for cases would be pretty accurate and deaths would not be. I get there are possible issues related to the age of patients now being younger and less likely to die than previous periods that had more older people sick, plus possible improved treatments, but the data and projections are updated daily, so these big discrepancies in death projection accuracy versus case prediction accuracy leave me skeptical. In any case, it's way easier to undercount actual infections than it is deaths, so it's puzzling for sure.