[washingtonismoney]

Yeah, the problem with all efficiency statistics is they don't tell us whether someone is efficient only because he only takes good shots (i.e. Nastic) or whether it's efficiency allied with shot-creation.

To me the most damning statistical factoid about our season is this: our defense has improved since last year, if you take the raw statistics (not including strength of schedule). But a big reason for that is a decrease in opponent 3 PT%. The problem here is that basketball statistics mavens have established pretty conclusively that team 3pt% is highly uncorrelated from year to year. The best approach, this implies, to defending the three point shot is preventing it from ever occurring (especially in a March Madness context, where a team can ride fluky 3 point shooting to an upset). Anyway, the improvement in our team is due to the improvement in our defense, which is due to something which may or may not be a nonrepeatable fluke.

(The comparison. In 2010-11 we scored about .99 points per possession--which is ever-so-slightly below average--and gave up 1.03 points per possession, which is a decent bit below average. In 2011-12 we're scoring...the same per possession and giving up .97 points per possession. The change is due in large part to the improvement in three point shooting, but also--and I realize this may seem strange if you saw the game last night--a marked improvement in rebounding. Still, the lack of improvement on the offensive end is damning and likely due to Dawkins's insistence on playing Jarrett Mann so many minutes, often in tandem with other scoring nonentities like Andrew Zimmerman and Josh Huestis.)

[washingtonismoney]

Yeah, the problem with all efficiency statistics is they don't tell us whether someone is efficient only because he only takes good shots (i.e. Nastic) or whether it's efficiency allied with shot-creation.

To me the most damning statistical factoid about our season is this: our defense has improved since last year, if you take the raw statistics (not including strength of schedule). But a big reason for that is a decrease in opponent 3 PT%. The problem here is that basketball statistics mavens have established pretty conclusively that team 3pt% is highly uncorrelated from year to year. The best approach, this implies, to defending the three point shot is preventing it from ever occurring (especially in a March Madness context, where a team can ride fluky 3 point shooting to an upset). Anyway, the improvement in our team is due to the improvement in our defense, which is due to something which may or may not be a nonrepeatable fluke.

(The comparison. In 2010-11 we scored about .99 points per possession--which is ever-so-slightly below average--and gave up 1.03 points per possession, which is a decent bit below average. In 2011-12 we're scoring...the same per possession and giving up .97 points per possession. The change is due in large part to the improvement in three point shooting, but also--and I realize this may seem strange if you saw the game last night--a marked improvement in rebounding. Still, the lack of improvement on the offensive end is damning and likely due to Dawkins's insistence on playing Jarrett Mann so many minutes, often in tandem with other scoring nonentities like Andrew Zimmerman and Josh Huestis.)