(08-28-2020, 11:42 AM)Papa John Wrote: On break and SamuelMcF inspired me to look at Stanford's FB team ranking based on average recruit score, all the way back to 2002 (first year for the Rivals database):
Year: Team Rank, Average Score, Previous years record, Head coach (year completed while recruiting that class)
2002: 26, 3.06, 9-3, Willingham out (7th year completed), Teevens new
2003: 41, 2.77, 2-9, Teevens (1st year)
2004: 35, 2.58, 4-7, Teevens (2nd year)
2005: 29, 2.88, 4-7, Teevens out (3rd year), Harris new
2006: 56, 2.44, 5-6, Harris (1st year)
2007: 49, 2.63, 1-11, Harris out (2nd year), Harbaugh new
2008: 45, 2.71, 4-8, Harbaugh (1st year)
2009: 20, 3.27, 5-7, Harbaugh (2nd year)
2010: 28, 3.14, 8-5, Harbaugh (3rd year)
2011: 17, 3.32, 12-1, Harbaugh out (4th year), Shaw new
2012: 4, 3.73, 11-2, Shaw (1st year)
2013: 17, 3.33, 12-2, Shaw (2nd year)
2014: 14, 3.45, 11-3, Shaw (3rd year)
2015: 20, 3.27, 8-5, Shaw (4th year)
2016: 23, 3.16, 12-2, Shaw (5th year)
2017: 3, 3.93, 10-3, Shaw (6th year)
2018: 26, 3.2, 9-5, Shaw (7th year)
2019: 25, 3.25, 9-4, Shaw (8th year)
2020: 21, 3.35, 4-8, Shaw (9th year)
2021: 37, 3.0, 0-0, Shaw (10th year)*
*Am assuming the spring football season--if there is one--won't have started by the early February signing date.
We'll see what happens with the 2021 class. The recruit ratings will be skewed in favor of HS athletes who have a fall season, I'm sure, but since Stanford recruits nationally that could work in our favor if some of our higher 3-star players show marked improvement on the field. In any case, I don't subscribe to the theory that the sky is falling because of the debacle known as the Stanford 2019 football season. I think that the staff is still adjusting to the early singing period and the lack of visitors due to the ongoing public health crisis.
First, thanks for putting together the numbers. Very interesting.
Let's see . . .
Harbaugh went 8-5 with recruiting classes that ranked, on average per recruit, about 43rd (for the previous 5 years).
Shaw went 9-4 with recruiting classes that ranked, on average per recruit, about 15th (for the previous 5 years).
Shaw went 9-5 with recruiting classes that ranked, on average per recruit, about 16th (for the previous 5 years). And most recently,
Shaw went 4-8 with recruiting classes that ranked, on average per recruit, about 17th (for the previous 5 years).
Now, if you consider that the next time Stanford plays football will be the fall of 2022, then Shaw will have recruiting classes that ranked, on average per recruit, about 22nd (for the previous 5 years) - i.e., worse than the talent level that he coached to 4-8* - that gets a bit scary. Only the talent will actually be significantly worse than the rankings indicate because Adebo, Little (and I believe Mills), at least, will be gonzo. And those guys were the highest-ranked players in that 2017 class, IIRC.
So yeah, I think there are very strong reasons to be concerned about on-field results (and that doesn't even address other program issues that plague Stanford - namely, all the empties that show up as fans on game day).
The numbers you compile also support what my eyes tell me: that Shaw can only win with superior players. Stanford does not have an in-game sideline advantage . . . against anyone, as far as I can tell.
* In fairness, injuries were brutal last season, but still . . .