[M T]

I am sometimes a prophet of doom and gloom here, because I am often trying to look to the future and project where we are going, which is often bad.  But, if you want some good news, look at the rate of increase in cases; it is starting to level off.

If you download their data, and take the deltas of "positive increase" (ie, daily new cases) of each day versus the day a week before, you see some patterns.

Except for about 3 days plus Thanksgiving weekend, the numbers have been going up since 9/14.  The rate of increase grew at the beginning of November (probably accelerated by Halloween).

The almost-sinusoidal positive half-cycle peaks 11/12, and drops to near 0 on 11/24.  Presumably artificial, it goes very negative on 11/25 and immediately climbs steeply (making up for lack of testing at Thanksgiving?) to about 12/5 and then has dropped way down by 12/9, where it has somewhat flattened the last 4 days.

Personally, I don't see that we've gone negative or are necessarily on track to go negative.  To me, this dramatically shows what Thanksgiving did to us.  We've gotten past the immediate effects of Thanksgiving, but will there be another bounce?

(Still frustrated as I can't just attach a graph.)

82 Card: The CFR (as you are discussing) is dependent on the age of those getting the disease. You may just be seeing a younger demographic.

[M T]

I am sometimes a prophet of doom and gloom here, because I am often trying to look to the future and project where we are going, which is often bad.  But, if you want some good news, look at the rate of increase in cases; it is starting to level off.

If you download their data, and take the deltas of "positive increase" (ie, daily new cases) of each day versus the day a week before, you see some patterns.

Except for about 3 days plus Thanksgiving weekend, the numbers have been going up since 9/14.  The rate of increase grew at the beginning of November (probably accelerated by Halloween).

The almost-sinusoidal positive half-cycle peaks 11/12, and drops to near 0 on 11/24.  Presumably artificial, it goes very negative on 11/25 and immediately climbs steeply (making up for lack of testing at Thanksgiving?) to about 12/5 and then has dropped way down by 12/9, where it has somewhat flattened the last 4 days.

Personally, I don't see that we've gone negative or are necessarily on track to go negative.  To me, this dramatically shows what Thanksgiving did to us.  We've gotten past the immediate effects of Thanksgiving, but will there be another bounce?

(Still frustrated as I can't just attach a graph.)

82 Card: The CFR (as you are discussing) is dependent on the age of those getting the disease. You may just be seeing a younger demographic.