[BostonCard]

"Notre Dame's rise is more relevant, worrisome and perhaps frustrating." 
Brian Kelly went 4-8 in 2016. He made a few changes. He's 43-8 since then. Shaw went 4-8 in 2019...

Texas went 5-7 in 2016.  It fired Charlie Strong after that year.  They have gone 32-18 since and just fired Charlie Strong.
Nebraska went 4-8 in 2017.  It fired Mike Riley.  They have gone 12-20 since then.
Florida State went 7-6 in 2017.  It fired Jimbo Fisher mid-year.  They have since gone 14-20.
In fact, the list of teams that seemingly underachieved and "made changes" but did no better after "making changes" is much longer than the list of teams that "made changes" and went to the college football playoffs.

Frustrating as the fact that we went 4-8 in 2019 is, "making a few changes" is no panacea.  In fact, I don't think there is any evidence that coaching changes (head coach or coordinators) result in anything more than reversion to the mean (on average).  Since coaching changes tend to happen after a disappointing season, reversion to the mean implies that there likely will be some improvement, but I don't think there is any evidence that there is any more improvement than there would have been had the team not "made a few changes".  But, of course, since the universe of teams that "make a few changes" after a disappointing season is large, some of them will certainly have much larger than average improvements (just as some will have have worse than average improvements).  These teams then get held as evidence that "making changes" makes a difference.

Look, after going 4-8 in 2019, Shaw didn't "make a few changes".  Lo and behold, we went 4-2 in 2020!  Obviously, it must have been because he didn't "make a few changes".  Or, maybe there was some reversion to the mean, and changes or not, we likely would have had an improvement over a disappointing year.

BC

[BostonCard]

"Notre Dame's rise is more relevant, worrisome and perhaps frustrating." 
Brian Kelly went 4-8 in 2016. He made a few changes. He's 43-8 since then. Shaw went 4-8 in 2019...

Texas went 5-7 in 2016.  It fired Charlie Strong after that year.  They have gone 32-18 since and just fired Charlie Strong.
Nebraska went 4-8 in 2017.  It fired Mike Riley.  They have gone 12-20 since then.
Florida State went 7-6 in 2017.  It fired Jimbo Fisher mid-year.  They have since gone 14-20.
In fact, the list of teams that seemingly underachieved and "made changes" but did no better after "making changes" is much longer than the list of teams that "made changes" and went to the college football playoffs.

Frustrating as the fact that we went 4-8 in 2019 is, "making a few changes" is no panacea.  In fact, I don't think there is any evidence that coaching changes (head coach or coordinators) result in anything more than reversion to the mean (on average).  Since coaching changes tend to happen after a disappointing season, reversion to the mean implies that there likely will be some improvement, but I don't think there is any evidence that there is any more improvement than there would have been had the team not "made a few changes".  But, of course, since the universe of teams that "make a few changes" after a disappointing season is large, some of them will certainly have much larger than average improvements (just as some will have have worse than average improvements).  These teams then get held as evidence that "making changes" makes a difference.

Look, after going 4-8 in 2019, Shaw didn't "make a few changes".  Lo and behold, we went 4-2 in 2020!  Obviously, it must have been because he didn't "make a few changes".  Or, maybe there was some reversion to the mean, and changes or not, we likely would have had an improvement over a disappointing year.

BC