04-12-2021, 12:30 PM
If we'd had a full fall season and the usual tournament play, I think Stanford more or less lives up to its #4 preseason ranking, finishing second to UCLA in the Pac-12 and losing in the NCAA quarters or semis. No team improves over the long haul like Stanford does, and Lele is an absolute master at having her team playing its best tennis when NCAAs roll around. But this year just doesn't allow for that in-year improvement to any similar degree. It stinks. But that said, here's the overly optimistic view of Stanford's chances:
* I figured Stanford would be second in the Pac-12 and here we are, tied for second with just a home date with Cal standing in between us and the conference 2 seed. We suffered a shocking upset on the road to Oregon, but other than that, our two losses are to other teams in that upper echelon of teams nationwide. That's not so bad! It wreaks havoc on our ranking because we just don't have enough good wins to climb as high as other teams, but a fluky upset road loss plus two losses to top teams isn't inconsistent with a team capable of a deep postseason run.
* We lost 7-0 to UCLA and that's a bummer. We were shorthanded, sure, but still. But does that mean we can't beat UCLA? In 2019, we lost 4-3 to Georgia at National Indoors and turned around and beat them 4-0 in the national title match. In 2018, we lost 7-0 to Vanderbilt in Nashville before beating them 4-3 in the national title match. So let's go line by line with UCLA, assuming we'll need four points from singles:
1. Gordon didn't play her best against Forbes the first time around, but she's absolutely good enough to beat her, especially on a neutral court.
2. Hart got Blake this time, but think of last year. The first matchup, Hart beat Blake 6-2, 6-1. The second time? Blake won 6-0, 6-4. Blake has the talent to take Hart out, and convincingly so.
3. Arbuthnott lost 7-5 in her third set against Bolton. Who says she can't flip that result next time?
4. Vivian Wolff crushed Janice Shin. She won't crush Ana Geller.
5. Sara Choy had been through the ringer in her last couple of matches before she fell short and lost not just the second set but a third-set match tiebreaker to Sasha Vagramov. If Choy's legs are fresher, I like her chances.
6. Goulak wiped the floor with Higuchi. So perhaps we throw a different opponent at her this time around. Goulak is a big hitter and a poor matchup for Higuchi, but what if Madurawe or Houghton is there instead?
Anyway, sure, UCLA is better than we are right now, but are they 7-0 better? Reader, they are not. And we are absolutely capable of getting four points against UCLA.
(And to be clear, we'll absolutely make NCAAs. Just a question of whether or not we host the first/second rounds.)
* I figured Stanford would be second in the Pac-12 and here we are, tied for second with just a home date with Cal standing in between us and the conference 2 seed. We suffered a shocking upset on the road to Oregon, but other than that, our two losses are to other teams in that upper echelon of teams nationwide. That's not so bad! It wreaks havoc on our ranking because we just don't have enough good wins to climb as high as other teams, but a fluky upset road loss plus two losses to top teams isn't inconsistent with a team capable of a deep postseason run.
* We lost 7-0 to UCLA and that's a bummer. We were shorthanded, sure, but still. But does that mean we can't beat UCLA? In 2019, we lost 4-3 to Georgia at National Indoors and turned around and beat them 4-0 in the national title match. In 2018, we lost 7-0 to Vanderbilt in Nashville before beating them 4-3 in the national title match. So let's go line by line with UCLA, assuming we'll need four points from singles:
1. Gordon didn't play her best against Forbes the first time around, but she's absolutely good enough to beat her, especially on a neutral court.
2. Hart got Blake this time, but think of last year. The first matchup, Hart beat Blake 6-2, 6-1. The second time? Blake won 6-0, 6-4. Blake has the talent to take Hart out, and convincingly so.
3. Arbuthnott lost 7-5 in her third set against Bolton. Who says she can't flip that result next time?
4. Vivian Wolff crushed Janice Shin. She won't crush Ana Geller.
5. Sara Choy had been through the ringer in her last couple of matches before she fell short and lost not just the second set but a third-set match tiebreaker to Sasha Vagramov. If Choy's legs are fresher, I like her chances.
6. Goulak wiped the floor with Higuchi. So perhaps we throw a different opponent at her this time around. Goulak is a big hitter and a poor matchup for Higuchi, but what if Madurawe or Houghton is there instead?
Anyway, sure, UCLA is better than we are right now, but are they 7-0 better? Reader, they are not. And we are absolutely capable of getting four points against UCLA.
(And to be clear, we'll absolutely make NCAAs. Just a question of whether or not we host the first/second rounds.)