04-22-2021, 10:43 AM
Or it could be as simple as Cal and Stanford being T23 and #25 in the latest coaches' poll. If one of those two teams wins the Pac-12 tournament, it's adding a win over UCLA and each other, and that might be enough to get them into the top 16 of the coaches' poll.
But if you're say, the Texas A&M women, and you're ranked #12/#17, how brutal is it to know you won't be hosting the first rounds even though your ranking means you merit it? Either the school decided to push just one hosting bid for the men (ranked #8/#8), or the NCAA ruled them out. Imagine being on that team and having to go to Cal or Stanford to nominally be a #1 regional seed but having to play on the #2 seed's home courts.
But ultimately, it's hard to imagine the NCAA picking a team ranked in the 20s to host over a team in the teens (provided both teams have bids in), so rankings will still matter. Looking just at the coaches' poll and the teams from #12 on down, here's who we could be likely to jump (teams likely/certain to drop due to tournament losses in italics, teams who are ineligible to host in strikethrough):
#12 UVA (4th seed in ACC, plays tomorrow against (5) Duke)
#13 Florida (just lost to South Carolina in its only SEC tournament match)
#14 Michigan (2nd seed in Big Ten, will play Northwestern in semis)
#15 Northwestern (3rd seed in Big Ten, will play Michigan in semis)
#16 Duke (5th seed in ACC, plays (12) Louisville today before (4) UVA tomorrow)
T17 Georgia Tech (6th seed in ACC, plays (14) Virginia Tech today before (3) N.C. State tomorrow)
T17 Texas A&M (3rd seed in SEC, beat #21 Auburn, plays #27 South Carolina today)
#19 Tennessee (5th seed in SEC, beat #39 Miss State, then upset #11 LSU, plays #3 UGA today)
#20 Miami (7th seed in ACC, plays (10) Notre Dame today and then #7 FSU tomorrow)
#21 Auburn (6th seed in SEC, beat #31 Arkansas, lost to #17 Texas A&M)
#22 Ole Miss (8th seed in SEC, lost to #28 Kentucky)
T23 Cal (3rd seed in Pac-12, to play #6 Oregon, then #25 Stanford)
T23 Vanderbilt (10th seed in SEC, lost to #27 South Carolina)
#25 Stanford (2nd seed in Pac-12, to play #42 UW, then #23 Cal and #4 UCLA if seeds hold)
So, what does that mean?
* Thank goodness South Carolina isn't in the mix to host, because after beating Vanderbilt and upsetting Florida, they could easily jump us in the final rankings. But even with Florida losing, hard to imagine them dropping more than a couple spots.
* Tennessee did the absolute opposite of what we needed, pulling a big upset over LSU to cement its place in the rankings. That could be the end of our hosting hopes, as they'll be top 16 in the end.
* If we beat UW and Cal but lose to UCLA, we should expect to climb over Cal, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Auburn. Depending on how ACC matches go, we might climb over Miami and Georgia Tech. And maybe the Michigan-Northwestern loser, too. But those are reaches. And we're clearly rooting for UVA over Duke. In order to get ourselves in the top 16 and remove all doubt, we need to beat UCLA, too.
* If we beat Cal but not UCLA, a ranking around #21 or #22 seems likely, and with it, a trip to ACC/SEC country (or Ann Arbor or Evanston) for the first couple of rounds against the 11th or 12th ranked team in the country. LSU, UVA, maybe Michigan if they beat Northwestern. Someone of that caliber.
But if you're say, the Texas A&M women, and you're ranked #12/#17, how brutal is it to know you won't be hosting the first rounds even though your ranking means you merit it? Either the school decided to push just one hosting bid for the men (ranked #8/#8), or the NCAA ruled them out. Imagine being on that team and having to go to Cal or Stanford to nominally be a #1 regional seed but having to play on the #2 seed's home courts.
But ultimately, it's hard to imagine the NCAA picking a team ranked in the 20s to host over a team in the teens (provided both teams have bids in), so rankings will still matter. Looking just at the coaches' poll and the teams from #12 on down, here's who we could be likely to jump (teams likely/certain to drop due to tournament losses in italics, teams who are ineligible to host in strikethrough):
#12 UVA (4th seed in ACC, plays tomorrow against (5) Duke)
#13 Florida (just lost to South Carolina in its only SEC tournament match)
#14 Michigan (2nd seed in Big Ten, will play Northwestern in semis)
#15 Northwestern (3rd seed in Big Ten, will play Michigan in semis)
#16 Duke (5th seed in ACC, plays (12) Louisville today before (4) UVA tomorrow)
T17 Georgia Tech (6th seed in ACC, plays (14) Virginia Tech today before (3) N.C. State tomorrow)
T17 Texas A&M (3rd seed in SEC, beat #21 Auburn, plays #27 South Carolina today)
#19 Tennessee (5th seed in SEC, beat #39 Miss State, then upset #11 LSU, plays #3 UGA today)
#20 Miami (7th seed in ACC, plays (10) Notre Dame today and then #7 FSU tomorrow)
#21 Auburn (6th seed in SEC, beat #31 Arkansas, lost to #17 Texas A&M)
#22 Ole Miss (8th seed in SEC, lost to #28 Kentucky)
T23 Cal (3rd seed in Pac-12, to play #6 Oregon, then #25 Stanford)
T23 Vanderbilt (10th seed in SEC, lost to #27 South Carolina)
#25 Stanford (2nd seed in Pac-12, to play #42 UW, then #23 Cal and #4 UCLA if seeds hold)
So, what does that mean?
* Thank goodness South Carolina isn't in the mix to host, because after beating Vanderbilt and upsetting Florida, they could easily jump us in the final rankings. But even with Florida losing, hard to imagine them dropping more than a couple spots.
* Tennessee did the absolute opposite of what we needed, pulling a big upset over LSU to cement its place in the rankings. That could be the end of our hosting hopes, as they'll be top 16 in the end.
* If we beat UW and Cal but lose to UCLA, we should expect to climb over Cal, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Auburn. Depending on how ACC matches go, we might climb over Miami and Georgia Tech. And maybe the Michigan-Northwestern loser, too. But those are reaches. And we're clearly rooting for UVA over Duke. In order to get ourselves in the top 16 and remove all doubt, we need to beat UCLA, too.
* If we beat Cal but not UCLA, a ranking around #21 or #22 seems likely, and with it, a trip to ACC/SEC country (or Ann Arbor or Evanston) for the first couple of rounds against the 11th or 12th ranked team in the country. LSU, UVA, maybe Michigan if they beat Northwestern. Someone of that caliber.