04-29-2021, 10:38 AM
(04-29-2021, 06:23 AM)winflop Wrote:(04-28-2021, 03:58 PM)oldalum Wrote: home course advantage has got to be worth something -- how many strokes would you say?
That can vary quite a bit, depending on which teams/players:
- Have they ever played here before? If they have, then the advantage isn't much
- What grasses are they used to playing on? Yes, this makes a big difference, especially for players who are most familiar with Bermuda grass which is common in the south and southeast.
- How do they play on tough courses? Players who are used to making birdies and not having to scramble for par could struggle. 8 of 53 women at Pac-12s finished under par (15%). That might climb to 20% given that the field is likely a little better than it was at Pac-12s especially the bottom half
- The greens have a lot of subtle breaks, but these players will adjust to them pretty well after the practice round.
Put all that together, I'd give Stanford at most a 1-2 stroke advantage per player = 4-8 strokes overall. They should have no trouble making the cut unless most of them play poorly.
The one lineup issue I could see for Stanford is Sadie Engelmann who has not played well of late. Each team is allowed to roster 6 players and choose 5 each day. She will likely be in the #5 slot but it wouldn't surprise me if we see another player in that spot Tuesday and/or Wednesday if she plays poorly on Monday. Junior Calista Reyes or senior Ziyi Wang ar the likeliest 6th players
The course will certainly be familiar to USC and Arizona. They just completed the P12 championship tournament on the Stanford course. USC won by 5 shots over Stanford.
Win, Englemann did shoot 69 in her final round at P12s. She also finished higher than either Seay or Krauter in the prior 2 tournaments. Maybe she just needed to adjust to the higher pressure of the conference tournament. She has more rounds in the 60s this season than Krauter and Seay combined. I would hope that she is solidly in the lineup.
"We have an unwritten rule around here not to do anything stupid."
-Casey Jacobsen, Feb 3, 2000
