05-31-2021, 11:59 PM
I've calculated what I believe will be the totals to date for 4 schools in addition to Stanford: Florida, UCLA, North Carolina, and Ohio St. Florida is the only other school besides Stanford that has always finished in the top 10. In fact, they have never finished lower than 7th. They do this with only 21 NCAA sports (9 men's and 12 women's). They have finished 2nd 5 times and 3rd 6 times. They've come the closest to beating Stanford. In 2012-13, Stanford beat them by 16.5 points. UCLA has finished 2nd 8 times and 3rd 7 times. They had finished in the top 10 every year until 2008-9. Since then, they've finished out of the top 10 3 times, but also have 2 2nds and 2 3rds. North Carolina won the Cup the first year and has finished 2nd 4 times, but hasn't been a major player since 2008-9. They've finished out of the top 10 5 times. Ohio St. seems to be the new kid on the block. Historically, they were never a major player until 2010-11 when they finished 2nd. Since then, they've finished 2nd 2 more times, but have also finished out of the top 10 3 times. They participate in 33 NCAA sports.
Assuming the Fall totals represent the 8 sports listed by the NCAA as Fall sports, I have:
Stanford 328
N. Carolina 327.5
UCLA 214
Ohio St. 204
Florida 137.5
Winter totals Cumulative
Stanford 444.5 772.5
Florida 425.5 563
Ohio St. 413.75 617.75
N. Carolina 324.5 652
UCLA 186 400
We will be able to check these numbers on June 3. There may be some other school that's snuck into the top 5.
Things get dicey in the Spring. So far, here's what I have for the cumulative:
Stanford 1090.25
N. Carolina 965
Florida 946.5
Ohio St. 745.75
UCLA 738
There are still 5 sport tournaments either ongoing or still to begin. Men's golf and softball are currently being played. Points are already included for these teams if they have already been eliminated. Baseball, men's track and field, and women's track and field have yet to start. Stanford has maxed out on the 15 sports outside of the mandatory 4. Currently, our lowest scores that count are 50 points. We have 3 sports (softball, women's tennis, and men's tennis) worth 50 points, and only 2 of them count. So, any sports other than baseball need to exceed 50 points in order to count and then it's only the differential that will add to our total. The other schools will still be adding the full amount.
Stanford will get at least 25 points for baseball. Hopefully more. The women could do well in track and field, but would have to place higher than 24th to get at least 50 points.
N. Carolina is still playing in men's golf. They are guaranteed at least 72.75 points with a maximum of 100. In past years, they have gotten points in both track and field tournaments. Two years ago, the women got 56 points, the men didn't get any. They aren't in the baseball tournament.
Florida will probably score big points in both track and field tournaments, possibly 70ish in each. Their baseball team is seeded #15. Both Stanford and Florida are expected to win their regionals. Stanford's odds of winning their super regional would appear to be better than Florida winning theirs.
Ohio St. could score some points in track and field. They aren't in the baseball tournament, so they can't beat Stanford.
UCLA could win softball. They will get some points in track and field. They're in the baseball tournament, but aren't seeded. If they win, their regional, they could be playing Stanford in the super regional. All told, I think UCLA is too far back at this point to beat Stanford.
Assuming the Fall totals represent the 8 sports listed by the NCAA as Fall sports, I have:
Stanford 328
N. Carolina 327.5
UCLA 214
Ohio St. 204
Florida 137.5
Winter totals Cumulative
Stanford 444.5 772.5
Florida 425.5 563
Ohio St. 413.75 617.75
N. Carolina 324.5 652
UCLA 186 400
We will be able to check these numbers on June 3. There may be some other school that's snuck into the top 5.
Things get dicey in the Spring. So far, here's what I have for the cumulative:
Stanford 1090.25
N. Carolina 965
Florida 946.5
Ohio St. 745.75
UCLA 738
There are still 5 sport tournaments either ongoing or still to begin. Men's golf and softball are currently being played. Points are already included for these teams if they have already been eliminated. Baseball, men's track and field, and women's track and field have yet to start. Stanford has maxed out on the 15 sports outside of the mandatory 4. Currently, our lowest scores that count are 50 points. We have 3 sports (softball, women's tennis, and men's tennis) worth 50 points, and only 2 of them count. So, any sports other than baseball need to exceed 50 points in order to count and then it's only the differential that will add to our total. The other schools will still be adding the full amount.
Stanford will get at least 25 points for baseball. Hopefully more. The women could do well in track and field, but would have to place higher than 24th to get at least 50 points.
N. Carolina is still playing in men's golf. They are guaranteed at least 72.75 points with a maximum of 100. In past years, they have gotten points in both track and field tournaments. Two years ago, the women got 56 points, the men didn't get any. They aren't in the baseball tournament.
Florida will probably score big points in both track and field tournaments, possibly 70ish in each. Their baseball team is seeded #15. Both Stanford and Florida are expected to win their regionals. Stanford's odds of winning their super regional would appear to be better than Florida winning theirs.
Ohio St. could score some points in track and field. They aren't in the baseball tournament, so they can't beat Stanford.
UCLA could win softball. They will get some points in track and field. They're in the baseball tournament, but aren't seeded. If they win, their regional, they could be playing Stanford in the super regional. All told, I think UCLA is too far back at this point to beat Stanford.