[Farm93]

bnarver, thanks for running the numbers.

[In 2019, W Outdoor T&F accounted for more than 2760 points across all schools (I presume Indoor T&F and Cross Country had similar totals), while Beach Volleyball accounted for a total of 430 points across all schools.]

North Carolina is ranked 76 in M T&F and is not in the top 25 in W T&F.  If North Carolina wins M. Golf, they are still 25.25 short of Stanford's current total.  But, in T&F a 48th place finish is worth 22 points.  If I'm right, Stanford is guaranteed 37.5 points by making the baseball tournament.

In M Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 7 and Stanford 53.  In W Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 9 while Stanford is not in the top 25.  If Florida finishes as they are ranked, they'll get 141 points, leaving them 2.75 points behind Stanford's current total. 

Assuming Stanford scores less than 50 points in the the two T&F championships and that Florida is slightly behind Stanford going into the baseball, it will come down to whether Stanford finishes ahead of Florida in baseball.  In that circumstance, an equal finish will result in a Directors' Cup win for Stanford.

Your additional analysis is where I imagined the focus should be at this stage.

North Carolina is simply not a power in T&F, so their ability to get lots of points is limited.

Florida, however, is a VERY different story.   T&F team rankings often do not have to align with NCAA final team standings.   Florida COULD have one or two good sprinters.   For the NCAAs those star sprinters could finally run, and win, in multiple events.   With 2 or 3 sprinters having a great weekend a school can finish in the top 5 even if their pre-meet "team" ranking was outside of the top 20.

A key insight into Florida's potential ability to collect points in MTF & WTF in a large meet format was the SEC Championship meet.    It just doesn't look like they have the stars to get a large collection of points.   FWIW - IMHO Stanford WTF has some potential to do a lot better than the team rankings imply because Stanford has some distance runners that could get a lot of points if the race tactics go their way.

Hopefully it all works out.

[Farm93]

bnarver, thanks for running the numbers.

[In 2019, W Outdoor T&F accounted for more than 2760 points across all schools (I presume Indoor T&F and Cross Country had similar totals), while Beach Volleyball accounted for a total of 430 points across all schools.]

North Carolina is ranked 76 in M T&F and is not in the top 25 in W T&F.  If North Carolina wins M. Golf, they are still 25.25 short of Stanford's current total.  But, in T&F a 48th place finish is worth 22 points.  If I'm right, Stanford is guaranteed 37.5 points by making the baseball tournament.

In M Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 7 and Stanford 53.  In W Outdoor T&F, Florida is ranked 9 while Stanford is not in the top 25.  If Florida finishes as they are ranked, they'll get 141 points, leaving them 2.75 points behind Stanford's current total. 

Assuming Stanford scores less than 50 points in the the two T&F championships and that Florida is slightly behind Stanford going into the baseball, it will come down to whether Stanford finishes ahead of Florida in baseball.  In that circumstance, an equal finish will result in a Directors' Cup win for Stanford.

Your additional analysis is where I imagined the focus should be at this stage.

North Carolina is simply not a power in T&F, so their ability to get lots of points is limited.

Florida, however, is a VERY different story.   T&F team rankings often do not have to align with NCAA final team standings.   Florida COULD have one or two good sprinters.   For the NCAAs those star sprinters could finally run, and win, in multiple events.   With 2 or 3 sprinters having a great weekend a school can finish in the top 5 even if their pre-meet "team" ranking was outside of the top 20.

A key insight into Florida's potential ability to collect points in MTF & WTF in a large meet format was the SEC Championship meet.    It just doesn't look like they have the stars to get a large collection of points.   FWIW - IMHO Stanford WTF has some potential to do a lot better than the team rankings imply because Stanford has some distance runners that could get a lot of points if the race tactics go their way.

Hopefully it all works out.