[FarmBoy]

Even if Luck would've gotten the same money in nominal terms, he nevertheless lost money because:
1) inflation (2012 dollars are worth ever so slightly less than 2011 dollars)
2) time value of money (i.e. Luck could've invested the money for a year, seen it grow, etc. Though with the way the market is behaving these days, that's minimal.)
3) opportunity cost: Luck forever cost himself a year of money-earning
4) And, of course, the fact that he'll have to wait an extra year for his second contract, which is where the real mo

These are fair points,though to quibble, point 1 is included in point 2, and the contract will be slightly larger than Newton's, so the time value of the first contract is a wash. However, unless I were inside Luck's personal circle, I wouldn't put as much weight on the value of the second contract. I'm sure there will be one, but the magnitude is highly uncertain. And I'm sure the Colts could argue that by staying, Luck's joined to a team with a recent history of paying top dollar in the league, compared to Carolina, whose QB history is less glamorous. From their point, they'll argue that waiting a year and coming to Indy actually lengthened Luck's career and increased the expected value of future contracts. But given the high variability of top QB pick outcomes, you really don't know what the second contract will look like (or even if it will come.)

Regardless, it looks like Irsay is denying the reports (http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/sports/colts_a...ract-rumor). I would love to know the back story on this negotiation. The most curious aspect, I find, is that Luck hired his uncle to be his agent. He's the only NFL player at the agency (Wasserman), and Luck's uncle was hired by the group just recently. It doesn't appear that Wilson has any experience as an agent:

spent the past four years as an executive for Major League Soccer and Soccer United Marketing. He also served in executive roles with the Arena Football League, Champ Car World Series and for 13 years with NFL International, including stops as managing director of NFL Mexico and general manager of the Scottish Claymores of NFL Europe.

Clearly, maximizing his football revenue streams is not Luck's number one priority, per the previous discussion, but I wonder if Wilson is fumbling these negotiations at all, as a first time agent. Perhaps the Colts saw an opportunity to push Luck on the contract language based on his uncle's relative inexperience. Perhaps Wilson has leaked this issue to the press. While a lot of people are pointing to Irsay mishandling things, if indeed there is a barrier to getting the contract signed, isn't it more likely it's the fault of the agent who's never managed the career of an NFL player, let alone the #1 pick and savior of the franchise?

[FarmBoy]

Even if Luck would've gotten the same money in nominal terms, he nevertheless lost money because:
1) inflation (2012 dollars are worth ever so slightly less than 2011 dollars)
2) time value of money (i.e. Luck could've invested the money for a year, seen it grow, etc. Though with the way the market is behaving these days, that's minimal.)
3) opportunity cost: Luck forever cost himself a year of money-earning
4) And, of course, the fact that he'll have to wait an extra year for his second contract, which is where the real mo

These are fair points,though to quibble, point 1 is included in point 2, and the contract will be slightly larger than Newton's, so the time value of the first contract is a wash. However, unless I were inside Luck's personal circle, I wouldn't put as much weight on the value of the second contract. I'm sure there will be one, but the magnitude is highly uncertain. And I'm sure the Colts could argue that by staying, Luck's joined to a team with a recent history of paying top dollar in the league, compared to Carolina, whose QB history is less glamorous. From their point, they'll argue that waiting a year and coming to Indy actually lengthened Luck's career and increased the expected value of future contracts. But given the high variability of top QB pick outcomes, you really don't know what the second contract will look like (or even if it will come.)

Regardless, it looks like Irsay is denying the reports (http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/sports/colts_a...ract-rumor). I would love to know the back story on this negotiation. The most curious aspect, I find, is that Luck hired his uncle to be his agent. He's the only NFL player at the agency (Wasserman), and Luck's uncle was hired by the group just recently. It doesn't appear that Wilson has any experience as an agent:

spent the past four years as an executive for Major League Soccer and Soccer United Marketing. He also served in executive roles with the Arena Football League, Champ Car World Series and for 13 years with NFL International, including stops as managing director of NFL Mexico and general manager of the Scottish Claymores of NFL Europe.

Clearly, maximizing his football revenue streams is not Luck's number one priority, per the previous discussion, but I wonder if Wilson is fumbling these negotiations at all, as a first time agent. Perhaps the Colts saw an opportunity to push Luck on the contract language based on his uncle's relative inexperience. Perhaps Wilson has leaked this issue to the press. While a lot of people are pointing to Irsay mishandling things, if indeed there is a barrier to getting the contract signed, isn't it more likely it's the fault of the agent who's never managed the career of an NFL player, let alone the #1 pick and savior of the franchise?