(06-08-2021, 05:04 PM)bnarver Wrote: Texas was in 13th place in the 2018-19 Winter standings and finished 4th in the final standings, so they definitely can score in the Spring sports. That was their best finish since they finished 3rd in 2005-6. They are currently 211.75 points behind Stanford. In 2018-2019, they scored 601.25 points in the Spring. If they do the same this year, that would give them 1159.5 points. In 2018-19, they finished 2nd in men's golf, 2nd in rowing, and 1st in men's tennis. Those were their 3 highest finishes. This year, they finished in 25th, 1st, and 3rd, respectively. They weren't in the baseball tournament in 2018-2019. This year, they are the #2 seed. With the men ranked 4th and the women ranked 7th in track and field, Texas figures to move up substantially in the final standings.
Texas slipped under our radar.
I've updated my version of the table above to include Texas. They've had a very good spring, with championships in 2 more sports.
Not counting baseball, M T&F, W T&F, Texas is 62.75 points behind Stanford.
If Texas matches their prediction for T&F, they will get M: 4th (80 points) and W: 7th (72 points), which will vault Texas far past Stanford.
Now the question becomes whether Stanford can beat Texas? If Stanford wins baseball and Texas fails to advance, Stanford would be 98.75 points ahead.
If predictions hold for T&F, Stanford would lose by about 47 points.
It seems the Director's Cup is Texas's to lose at this point, which is unlikely. From the Men's T&F analysis, it seems Texas could drop to 6th (73.5 pts), but not likely lower than that. From the Women's T&F analysis, it seems Texas could drop to 8th (70.5 pts), but not likely lower.
It appears that the T&F scores 8 places in each event with 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 points. If Stanford were to go 1-2 in the Women's 1500 & 5000, the most T&F meet points Stanford could score would be 36, which might be good for 6th place (73.5 points for the Director's Cup (- 50)). With optimum outcomes, Stanford would have 1089.75 + 100(baseball)+ 73.5-50 = 1213.25. With pessimistic outcomes for Texas, Texas would have 1027 + 64(baseball) + 73.5(M T&F) + 70.5(W T&F) = 1235.
Texas would have scores from FB (20th 54), WVB (2nd 90), WBB (5th 73), MBB (33rd 25), WSw (3rd 85), MSw (1st 100), W In T&F (8th 70.5), M In T&F (14th 60.75), WGolf (5th 72.75), MGolf (25th 49), Rowing (1st 100), SB (9th 64), WTen (1st 100), MTen (3rd 83), Baseball (?), W Out T&F (?), M Out T&F (?)
Stanford would have scores from WCC(3rd 85), MCC (5th 75), FH (5th 60), MSoc (9th 64), MWP (3rd 55), WBB (1st 100), Fencing(11th 57), MGym(1st 100), WSw(9th 69), MSw(14th 48), Wrestling (17th 57), BVB (7th 25), WGolf (5th 72.75), MGolf (37th 34.5), WLax (17th 25), Rowing(2nd 90), Softball (17th 50), WTen (17th 50), MTen (17th 50), WWP (3rd 55), Baseball(?), W Out T&F(?).
182.5 points will be removed from Stanford's scores as Stanford scored in 5 too many sports.