10-08-2021, 09:02 AM
(10-08-2021, 08:42 AM)Renaissance Man Wrote:(10-08-2021, 07:19 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Read my post in the predictions thread that presents clear data as to why Stanford has no chance at ASU and you might feel less sanguine.
To be fair, I initially doubted the credibility of ASU being favored by 10+, but after looking at the stats - including one common opponent in UCLA - I'm surprised the number isn't even bigger, especially considering short week road game for Stanford and ASU at home on a Friday night.
While I think that ASU looks like a team that will cause us a variety of problems, looking at their stats is very misleading. UCLA is the best barometer, but the Bruins have been all over the place from week to week this year. ASU's other opponents have been an FCS school and two FBS teams who rank at the bottom of all FBS teams in many important categories. I think ASU passes the eye test, but I would not give much credence to what their stats tell us about them at this point in the season.
Take a look at the stats now and where teams rank relative to one another.
Look again at the end of the season.
My hypothesis is that five games is just enough data so that 90% of teams won't move up or down in those final stat rankings (compared to now) more than 15 spots.
Total Defense national ranking (Pac-12 teams) [this is ypg allowed]
12th (tied) - ASU
25th - Utah
43rd - Washington
52nd - Oregon State
62nd - USC
63rd - Arizona
72nd - Washington State
74th - Colorado
77th - California
88th - Stanford
90th - UCLA
95th - Oregon